Last week, HashKey, hailed as "Hong Kong's first crypto stock," went public in Hong Kong.
A few days before the IPO, several friends privately asked me for my opinion on the company and its stock; several domestic venture capital funds in my social circle also enthusiastically shared their excitement and joy at participating in the subscription.
Indeed, with such a prestigious halo, and amidst the contrast and pressure of the rapidly developing crypto ecosystem across the ocean, Hong Kong has finally seen a landmark crypto company go public.
This is definitely going to attract a lot of attention.
However, when I replied to my friends in private, I made my opinion clear: I really don't have a good impression of this company.
This pessimism stems partly from the company's own development, but more significantly from complex non-economic factors.
To succeed in anything, the right timing, the right location, and the right people are all essential.
In our time, all companies and individuals willing and able to strive in the crypto ecosystem have undoubtedly benefited from favorable timing to some extent, as we are fortunate to be born at the right time.
Meanwhile, companies and individuals striving in the United States and Argentina, which I mentioned earlier, also have the advantages of geographical location and human resources.
The so-called geographical advantages of the United States and Argentina refer to their large populations and large potential user markets.
In the United States, people and businesses at all levels, from the government to private enterprises, are actively working to create a favorable environment for the development of the crypto ecosystem, ensuring that innovation by crypto companies is not unjustly stifled.
Argentina's situation is somewhat unique. Ironically, the lack of financial regulation by its government has inadvertently allowed the crypto ecosystem and applications to grow unchecked.
The different approaches taken by the United States and Argentina in terms of human resources have resulted in completely different outcomes in practice:
The former has developed a large number of crypto giants, but is somewhat lacking in practical applications, while the latter has developed crypto applications that are deeply rooted in daily life, but does not seem to have any world-class crypto companies.
However, regardless of the final outcome, we have seen that the crypto ecosystem has blossomed and borne fruit in countries that have the right timing, location, and people.
Unfortunately, HashKey did not have the same advantages in terms of location and resources.
In terms of geographical advantage, its target users seem rather vague: it certainly cannot be limited to Hong Kong, but there also seems to be no potential for expansion outwards.
Needless to say, the advantage of Hong Kong's common law system is that "anything not prohibited by law is permissible." This is a legal system, similar to that of the United States, that is highly conducive to innovation and development.
But now, after years of evolution, Hong Kong's common law is becoming increasingly "uncommon": the cryptocurrency exchange shops that used to be ubiquitous have disappeared, and the ability to freely use Hong Kong dollars to buy stablecoins is no longer possible...
These details alone reveal the changes in Hong Kong.
In this context, HashKey's IPO is more of an "example" and "model" than a natural commercial success.
In this situation, leading such a company forward is like asking a skilled cook to prepare a "Manchu Han Imperial Feast" when she has no rice to cook.
In fact, everyone knows why this is the case, what the future holds, and where the root of the problem lies.
Despite such challenging circumstances, the HashKey team has persevered and worked hard in Hong Kong all these years. I can't find any other word to describe my feelings besides sincere admiration.
Historically, even a genius as capable as Zhuge Liang, the Chancellor of the Han Dynasty, could only repay the kindness of the late emperor by working tirelessly until his death, barely managing to sustain the Shu Han state for several decades.
Sima Yi was wise; he took care of his health, bided his time, and outlasted all the unfavorable factors, ultimately emerging victorious.
