1. The initial estimate for the annualized quarterly growth rate of US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, and the initial estimate for the annualized quarterly growth rate of the core PCE price index was 2.9%.
The initial estimate for the annualized quarterly rate of US real GDP in the third quarter was 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3% and the previous value of 3.8%. The initial estimate for the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.9%, in line with market expectations and higher than the previous value of 2.6%. In addition, the initial estimate for the quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was 3.5%, significantly higher than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.5%.
2. QCP: With weakening liquidity during the holiday and institutions deleveraging at the end of the year, BTC may remain volatile.
QCP analysis indicates that the approaching Christmas holidays have led to weakening liquidity and year-end deleveraging by institutions, causing BTC to maintain range-bound trading. BTC and ETH perpetual open interest (OI) have decreased by approximately $3 billion and $2 billion respectively, suggesting that low liquidity makes the market more prone to amplified volatility. This Friday's Boxing Day options expiration accounts for more than half of Deribit's total OI, potentially indicating a directional shift. The decline in 85K put options and the continued presence of 100K calls suggest a cautiously neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Year-end tax settlement may increase short-term volatility, but without a clear breakout, the market is likely to remain range-bound for the rest of the year.
3. VanEck: Bitcoin miners' "surrender" may indicate that a temporary price bottom is approaching.
A recent report by VanEck suggests that Bitcoin miners' "surrender" may indicate an impending price bottom. Data shows that as of December 15th, Bitcoin's hashrate had fallen 4% in a month, the largest drop since April 2024. VanEck points out that since 2014, when hashrate declines over a 30-day cycle, there is a 65% probability that Bitcoin's price will rise in the following 90 days, and a 77% probability over 180 days, with an average increase of approximately 72%, considered a historically bullish contrarian signal.
4. Two Japanese employees were robbed at knifepoint at a money exchange in Sheung Wan when they attempted to exchange 1 billion yen for cryptocurrency.
Last week, two Japanese company employees working in the cryptocurrency and luxury goods business went to a cryptocurrency exchange in Sheung Wan to exchange 1 billion yen (approximately HK$50 million) in four suitcases for cryptocurrency and Hong Kong dollars. However, they were robbed at knifepoint. Hong Kong police disclosed that 15 people have been arrested so far, of whom 7 have been charged with conspiracy to rob. The police are currently tracking down the whereabouts of the money, and the investigation is ongoing. More arrests are possible.
5. IMF: The El Salvadoran government has agreed at the policy level to no longer actively increase its BTC holdings.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a new statement saying it will continue negotiations regarding the sale of El Salvador's Bitcoin project and the government's e-wallet, Chivo, and that the discussions have made "significant progress." The IMF stated that the Salvadoran government has agreed at the policy level to cease actively increasing its BTC holdings and is proceeding with the exit from the Chivo wallet. However, El Salvador's official Bitcoin office claims to be "purchasing 1 BTC daily" and stated on December 22nd that its holdings had increased to 7509 BTC. The IMF requires El Salvador to fully comply by the end of 2025 at the latest.
