The November crash: An unprecedented mega-capitulation 🪦 When I previously wrote the "Asaki Bear Series Analysis Post", I've actually been wanting to share a metric with you all, but I was worried about the amount of information being too much. Therefore, this signal was not added to the series of posts at that time. But I feel itchy to keep it to myself, so today I'll just go with a recap. Let me share with you a "surrender signal" that appeared during the November crash 👇: Today I'm going to share an indicator called the "Capitulation Metrics" 📊 Old friends may remember: In early October this year, BTC surged all the way to a new high on October 6th. On October 3rd, I wrote a long article from the perspective of "profit pressure." The article highlighted numerous top risk signals at the time; interested readers can refer to the link below. In that post on October 3rd, I shared an indicator with you all for the first time. This is the "BTC Profit Pressure Metric". The indicator I'm going to share today is based on the same principle as the BTC profit pressure indicator. Or you could say that these two indicators are "sibling indicators". Below, we'll briefly review the principles behind indicators: ➡️ Unlike traditional indicators, it uses a more novel benchmark for measuring "profit and loss" ➡️ Market participants will inevitably have different mindsets when facing "huge" and "small" profits and losses ➡️ Common characteristics of market capitulation indicators and profit-taking pressure indicators: Both are achieved by calculating the difference between the "holding cost" and the "selling price". To solve the above problem, specific quadratic functions are processed. At the same time, the results are smoothed by EMA(7) to filter out noise interference in order to identify trends. After understanding the principle, see the attached diagram: The indicator is usually located in the "flat area at the bottom," but during extreme crashes, The indicator will then rise rapidly, for example, in August 2024 and April 2025. I believe everyone has seen it: From the perspective of this indicator, the plunge in November created an unprecedentedly large-scale capitulation. Based on what I shared with everyone in "Shallow Bear Series Analysis Post (Part 3)," We know that a mass surrender event can alleviate the "killing many" phenomenon caused by panic. This significantly increases the probability of the market bottoming out. 📖 Shallow Bear Buy the dips Series Analysis Post (Part 3): A Major Market Capitulation Occurs x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… In the third post of my Shallow Bear series of analysis posts, I shared the Realized Loss indicator with you all. It belongs to the traditional profit and loss assessment indicators. At that time, from the perspective of Realized Loss, BTC also clearly experienced a large-scale capitulation event; At this point, whether it's traditional indicators or the new indicator we're sharing today, the "Market Surrender Indicator," Even though the two algorithms are different, they arrive at the same conclusion. One last thing: Americans are probably on holiday right now, so market liquidity is likely not very good. There's only one short vacation a year, regardless of whether you're satisfied with your results this year. I believe now is the perfect time to take a breather and give myself a proper break. Let's carefully consider our goals for next year, regroup, and fight again in 2026! ⚔️ That's all for today. Tomorrow is the weekend, so I wish you all a happy weekend in advance! 🫡

What was the highest possible surrender threshold between 2017 and 2022? Thank you.

Merry Christmas, Frank! 🫡 Unfortunately, Glassnode only provides data up to January 2024; data earlier is unavailable. This is also the only metric I've shared so far where older data is not available. 🥲

Merry Christmas, Mr. Berg! 😄🫶 I understand, thanks!

My duty 🙏