Chainfeeds Summary:
While 2025 appears to be the worst year for crypto, it actually features the largest supply turnover, the strongest institutional allocation intentions, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvements.
Article source:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/g_YW2Nxqznis4h9LijKbpA
Article Author:
Jocy
Opinion:
Jocy: The approval of the BTC spot ETF in January 2024 was a watershed moment. The market, previously dominated by retail investors and OGs (Original Guru), is now dominated by macro investors, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds. This isn't just a simple change in participants; it's a rewriting of the rules of the game. Data supports this judgment: BlackRock IBIT reached $50 billion AUM in 228 days, becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history. It now holds 780,000-800,000 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy's 670,000 BTC. Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity together account for 89% of the total assets of the BTC ETF. 13F investment plans show that 86% of institutional investors already hold or plan to allocate to digital assets. The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 rose from 0.29 in 2024 to 0.5 in 2025. After March 2024, long-term holders (LTH) cumulatively sold 1.4 million BTC, worth $121.17 billion. This is an unprecedented release of supply. But miraculously, the price didn't crash. Why? Because institutional and corporate treasuries absorbed all the selling pressure. There were three waves of selling by long-term holders (LTH): from March 2024 to November 2025, LTH sold approximately 1.4 million BTC (worth $121.17 billion). The first wave (late 2023 - early 2024): ETF approval, BTC rose from $25K to $73K; the second wave (late 2024): Trump's election, BTC surged towards $100K; the third wave (2025): BTC remained above $100K for an extended period. Unlike the single, explosive distributions of 2013, 2017, and 2021, this was a multi-wave, sustained distribution. We've seen BTC trade sideways at its high point for a year, a situation that has never occurred before. BTC that hasn't moved in over two years decreased by 1.6 million coins (approximately $140 billion) since the beginning of 2024, but the market's absorption capacity has improved. This leads to the second key judgment: the current situation is not a "bull market top," but rather an "institutional accumulation period." Now, let's return to the initial question: why am I still bullish on crypto despite it being the "worst performing" year in 2025? Because the market is undergoing a "transfer": from retail investors to institutions, from speculative holdings to institutional holdings, from short-term speculation to long-term holdings. This process will inevitably be accompanied by price adjustments and volatility. This isn't blind optimism, but rather based on: continuous inflows into ETFs, increased holdings of DAT by listed companies (134 companies globally holding 1.686 million BTC), an unprecedented policy window in the US, and the initial stage of institutional allocation. Of course, risks remain: macroeconomic factors include Fed policy and a strong dollar; regulatory factors include potential delays in market structure legislation; market factors include the possibility of continued selling by LTH; and political factors include the uncertainty of the midterm election results. But the other side of risk is opportunity. When everyone is bearish, it is often the best time to position oneself. Final investment logic: Short term (3-6 months): $87K-$95K range-bound, institutions continue to build positions; Medium term (first half of 2026): Policy + institutional dual drivers, target $120K-$150K; Long term (second half of 2026): Increased volatility, depending on election results and policy continuity.
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