Bitcoin has been experiencing a sharp correction since October of last year, demonstrating a distinct performance gap with gold. During the same period, Bitcoin fell by approximately 30%, while gold rose by approximately 16%, signaling a return shift toward safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin, a leading player in the virtual asset market, has experienced increased volatility this year and has struggled to find a clear direction. This has been largely due to a combination of global interest rate uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and cautious monetary policy in major countries, dampening investor sentiment toward risky assets. In contrast, gold, a leading real asset, continues its bullish trend, re-evaluating its potential as an inflation hedge and store of value.
The market interprets this trend as a return to safe-haven assets. This suggests that some funds are moving out of high-risk assets like stocks and virtual assets and into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds. In particular, the central bank's expanded gold purchases and dollar volatility are further driving up gold prices.
Technical indicators indicate that Bitcoin is currently entering a compression phase, with volatility narrowing. With major moving averages converging and trading volume declining, a breakout of support or a breakout of resistance is seen as a turning point that will determine the medium- to long-term direction. While a short-term rebound is possible, a clear recovery in trading volume and an improvement in the macro environment are needed for a trend reversal.
Experts believe the gap between gold and Bitcoin returns will likely serve as a gauge of investor sentiment for the time being. If the preference for safe-haven assets continues, the gold-Bitcoin bearish trend could persist. However, if signs of global liquidity easing emerge, Bitcoin's volatility could increase and its directionality could recover, they say.
Ultimately, the market's focus going forward will likely be on Bitcoin's technical breakthrough, along with macroeconomic variables. Investors' choices regarding where their funds will shift between risky and safe assets are being tested once again.
