Whale trading worth $14.8 million puts pressure on Trump's price, could it fall to $4.80?

A whale recently deposited 3 million TRUMP Token onto Binance after holding them for about 50 days, closing at a net loss of approximately $7.8 million, indicating more signs of "surrender" than profit-taking.

Despite increased short-term supply, the TRUMP price did not collapse immediately and remained above the $4.80 level. This development suggests that the selling pressure has been partially absorbed by the market, but the price structure remains fragile when encountering resistance above.

Whales taking losses on 3 million TRUMP shares increase short-term supply risk.

A whale wallet deposited 3 million TRUMP tokens worth $14.88 million onto Binance, lower than the initial withdrawal of $22.68 million, resulting in a net loss of approximately $7.8 million.

This trade is notable for being a "surrender" rather than a profit-taking transaction: the exit point is significantly lower than the Capital price. Depositing shares onto the exchange typically makes the market wary of potential selling, thereby increasing the risk of short-term supply.

However, the price of TRUMP shares did not fall sharply immediately after this move. The price remained above $4.80, indicating that the market absorbed some of the selling pressure. This implies that the event increased supply pressure, but was not enough on its own to trigger a downward trend breakout.

Resistance at $5.20–$5.25 is holding back the upward momentum after the breakout.

Trump broke out of the descending channel but was immediately rejected at the $5.20–$5.25 region, confirming this as active resistance rather than a reclaimed support zone.

The price briefly broke out of the descending channel, but failed to maintain the "price acceptance" above the previous upper boundary around $5.20–$5.25. The failed retest and the rapid downward reaction indicate that defensive selling pressure is concentrated in this area.

After being rejected, the price retreated to around $5.00, a zone that now acts as a short-term pivot point. A loss below $5.00 opens up the risk of a further decline to $4.80, where previous reactive Dip and liquidation zones have appeared.

The RSI is at 46, below the neutral threshold of 50, reflecting weak upward momentum despite breakout attempts. However, the RSI remains above the oversold zone around 30, suggesting selling pressure is in control rather than panic. This development resembles a "break in continuity" more than a trend reversal.

To neutralize the downward pressure, buyers need to reclaim $5.20 with clear momentum. Otherwise, this resistance zone continues to limit upside and increases the risk of a slide toward nearby supports.

Buyers absorbed the sell orders but lacked the momentum to push the price up.

The 90-day CVD (Cut, Draw, and Drive) taker spot is skewed towards the buy side, indicating that market buy orders may be exceeding sell orders, but the price is not expanding upwards, implying absorption rather than active demand.

The divergence between positive CVD and price hasn't broken out significantly because it suggests buyers are still participating despite the weakening structure. However, when prices aren't "blooming" upwards, it's often a sign that the market is absorbing supply, rather than having strong enough demand to push prices higher.

In such a context, buyers may be reactive (buying when prices fall to a certain level) rather than buying based on belief in the trend. This type of behavior often appears during consolidation/sideways phases, rather than signaling a sustainable upward reversal.

If CVD remains positive while prices are still being suppressed, demand may only be enough to balance selling pressure, but not enough to reverse momentum. This makes the market more vulnerable to short-term liquidation sweeps.

The Longing/ Short ratio leans towards Longing , but doesn't yet indicate strong confidence.

Data on top traders' positions on Binance shows that 56.87% of accounts are Longing and 43.13% are Short, with a Longing/ Short ratio of approximately 1.32 on the 4-hour timeframe, reflecting a cautious Longing bias.

The Longing position skew indicates that buyers have a numerical advantage, but not so overwhelming as to conclude a strong "trend bet." Additionally, this ratio often fluctuates rapidly, implying that traders are managing positions more flexibly rather than committing to a clear direction.

The fact that Short sellers haven't yet gained the upper hand also contributes to keeping prices compressed. This relative balance between the two sides may increase sensitivity to liquidation fluctuations, rather than creating a coherent trend.

The liquidation cluster around $5.10–$5.20 increases the risk of sharp volatility.

The 24-hour liquidation map shows a thick cluster of liquidation above the price at $5.10–$5.20, while the lower cluster is thinner near $4.80, increasing the likelihood of a price pullup to sweep through liquidation before determining direction.

When liquidation is heavily concentrated at the top, prices tend to be "pulled" upwards to test stop-loss/liquidation clusters, especially during periods of market uncertainty. This can create rapid rallies that test resistance levels.

However, if the price fails to break through and hold above the $5.10–$5.20 range, the risk of a bearish reversal increases, especially with thinner liquidation pockets below heading towards $4.80. In other words, the $5.10–$5.20 range is both a liquidation sweep target and a decisive "test" for the short-term trend.

The short-term trend remains vulnerable until it recovers the $5.20 level.

Until Trump regains $5.20, the price structure remains skewed towards downward pressure; buying pressure is absorbing selling orders but has not yet created an upward expansion.

In summary, the signals are: a weakened breakout at $5.20–$5.25, RSI below 50, and no further price expansion despite CVD leaning towards the buy side. This leaves the risk of continued weakness present, rather than a solid rebound.

The positive scenario requires a clear breakout above $5.20 and a sustained hold above this level to turn resistance into support. Conversely, continued rejection could lead to a return to test $5.00 and further to $4.80, which is currently Vai as a crucial buffer zone.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is a whale depositing TRUMP shares on Binance XEM a "surrender"?

Because this wallet deposited 3 million TRUMP tokens worth $14.88 million after previously withdrawing Token equivalent to $22.68 million, resulting in a realized loss of approximately $7.8 million. Exiting a position below Capital price typically reflects stop-loss behavior rather than profit-taking.

What price level is most important for Trump in the short term?

The $5.20–$5.25 range is key resistance. The $5.00 mark is a short-term pivot point, while $4.80 is a support zone near where the price has previously reacted and where there is liquidation.

Does a buy-side CVD mean prices will rise immediately?

Not necessarily. A positive CVD indicates that market buying pressure may outweigh selling pressure, but if the price doesn't extend upwards, it could be absorbing supply. When momentum is lacking, demand only balances selling pressure instead of pushing the price into an uptrend.

What does a Longing/ Short ratio of 1.32 indicate?

It shows a Longing bias (56.87% Longing vs. 43.13% Short) on the 4-hour timeframe, but the difference isn't enough to confirm strong confidence. The high volatility also suggests the trader is actively managing risk, making the price sensitive to liquidation sweeps.

How does high liquidation around $5.10–$5.20 affect the price?

The liquidation cluster above the price could "pull" the price up to test the $5.10–$5.20 range in the short term. If it fails to break through this range, the risk of a downward reversal increases, especially since there is thinner liquidation below near $4.80.