Analysis of Peter Thiel's Investment Roots and Future of Polymarket: As a Silicon Valley mogul, Thiel led a $70 million investment in Polymarket through Founders Fund in 2024, followed by nearly $200 million in additional funding in 2025, pushing its valuation to over $1 billion. The root lies in his core philosophy: "Freedom and democracy are incompatible." Thiel views democracy as inefficient and easily driven by emotions, while prediction markets like Polymarket, which aggregate accurate information through economic incentives, are superior to voting mechanisms. This aligns with his vision of "escaping politics": creating an unregulated "new space" through an encrypted platform, allowing markets to replace government decision-making and promoting a dynamic society dominated by elites. Critics accuse it of promoting a right-wing agenda and even allowing betting on sensitive events such as racial conflicts, but Thiel sees this as free expression. Polymarket's Future: By 2025, trading volume is projected to surge to $21.3 billion, with over 1.75 million users and a TVL exceeding 300 million, accounting for nearly half of the prediction market. Benefiting from CFTC deregulation, the US's return to the market, $2 billion investment from institutions like ICE, and sports/election events, the market is poised for growth. Looking ahead to 2026: Valuation could reach $12 billion, with potential $POLY token airdrops, its own L2 chain, AI integration, and DeFi expansion driving a $1 trillion market size. However, challenges lie in regulation (such as the French investigation), manipulation risks, and ethical controversies. Thiel's investment is not just a gamble, but a pawn in reshaping the "post-democratic" world—where the market becomes the ultimate truth, and elite winners take all.
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