Lighter is launching soon. Honestly, for these big truck projects in the current market, you don’t need to overanalyze. The amount of Sybil activity only affects the volume, not the quality. "When the token launches and starts dumping, that's when both airdrop farmers and shorts have the most consensus. Even if there are proactive market makers, they’ll wait until airdrop dumpers are almost done before stepping in. There's no way anyone’s going to market buy hard against heavy dumping right at launch." So, shorting in the first few hours after launch is fine. If the dump is heavy enough, just take profit. If you’re not brave enough to short right at open, wait for a bounce on day two or three and then pick your entry. The perp dex sector now feels just like the dex sector four years ago: after Uniswap launched, it was just endless wheel reinvention and point farming contests. After TGE, teams and VCs dump their bags, and the retail bagholders are left holding the fort. The perp dex market isn’t that big. We don’t need this many new dexes. The old projects’ valuations will inevitably get diluted by new launches, until 99% of them die and only 1-2 survive, reaching a value equilibrium—just like Uniswap now. Aster’s at a $5.5B FDV. I don’t see Lighter outperforming Aster after the TGE, especially with no more point farmers and no long-term support from Bn. Even a $3B FDV is overvalued in both the short and long term. It’s just another long-term short opportunity dressed up as a DeFi yield product.