Chainfeeds Summary:
For investors, the new rules of survival can be summarized in three dimensions: embrace leading companies and real yield, understand the technological content, and be wary of false narratives.
Article source:
https://x.com/Bruceai/status/2004552536540447224
Article Author:
Bruce
Opinion:
Bruce: The traditional logic of cycles has been completely broken in the structural changes of the crypto market. Bitwise, Fidelity, and Grayscale all agree that the four-year Bitcoin cycle is gradually losing its effectiveness, especially in the market dynamics after the introduction of ETFs, where the demand structure has fundamentally changed. 21Shares even explicitly stated: "The four-year Bitcoin cycle has broken down." Their data models reveal that the introduction of ETFs has caused the market driver to shift from the supply side (miner halving) to the demand side (institutional allocation). BlackRock and Fidelity clients have begun allocating Bitcoin on a quarterly basis, making the past halving cycle story increasingly unappealing. Bitwise's prediction is also very aggressive; they predict that Bitcoin will experience its first period of lower volatility than Nvidia in 2026. This is not just a numbers game, but a qualitative change for Bitcoin as an asset from a high-beta tech stock to a mature safe-haven asset, marking Bitcoin as no longer just a speculative asset, but gradually becoming a global hedge against currency inflation. Fidelity holds the same view, believing that Bitcoin will decouple from the correlation with high-tech stocks and become an independent safe-haven asset against fiat currency devaluation globally. Against the backdrop of high global debt and fiat currency devaluation, Bitcoin's attributes as a "monetary asset" will become increasingly prominent. With cyclical disruptions disappearing, institutions have reached a high degree of consensus on the logic behind capital flows. Firstly, stablecoins are seen as a significant force challenging traditional financial infrastructure (such as the ACH network). 21Shares predicts that the total market capitalization of stablecoins will exceed $1 trillion in 2026, becoming a core support for the digital dollar. Galaxy Digital predicts that the on-chain transaction volume of stablecoins will surpass that of the US ACH (Automated Clearing House) network, replacing it as a more efficient high-speed highway for funds. Coinbase projects a stablecoin market capitalization of $1.2 trillion by 2028, while a16z is even more aggressive, believing that stablecoins will become the foundational settlement layer of the internet, driving the prosperity of PayFi (Payment Finance) and making cross-border payments as convenient and inexpensive as sending an email. Both a16z and Coinbase are optimistic about the combination of AI and cryptocurrencies, believing that AI will become a major driving force for the crypto economy. Coinbase has disclosed Google's Agentic Payments Protocol (AP2) standard and developed a payment protocol called x402. This protocol will enable AI agents to conduct instant micro-payments directly via HTTP, creating a closed-loop business ecosystem between AIs. Under this new framework, AI agents will not only act as technological tools but will also become true economic actors, purchasing data, computing power, and storage through micro-payments. a16z further proposed the concept of Know Your Agent (KYA), arguing that with the rise of AI agents, traditional KYC (Know Your Customer) will gradually evolve into KYA, or Know Your Agent. AI agents will become the main players in transactions, and their behavior will directly impact the flow of funds and value transfer in the crypto market. AI agents will conduct 24/7 micro-payments through crypto wallets, driving commercial activities in the crypto world. This transformation not only changes the infrastructure of the crypto market but also brings about a new business civilization and payment model, marking the deep integration of cryptocurrency and AI. [Original text in English]
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