On December 28th, Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, published an article on his X account @mikemcglone11, issuing a serious warning about the future of Bitcoin. He believes that 2025 likely marked the peak of the Bitcoin and overall cryptocurrency market cycle, and that in 2026, the price of Bitcoin may first fall back to $50,000, serving as a "stopover" before further declines to $10,000—meaning a potential drop of up to 90%. McGlone wrote directly in the post:
"Will Bitcoin fall to $50,000 in 2026 and head towards $10,000? 2025 may have already marked the peak of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Gold only has three main precious metal competitors: silver, platinum, and palladium. In contrast, Bitcoin was the first cryptocurrency in 2009, but now faces competition from millions of digital assets."
He emphasized that this competition has severely diluted capital inflows, making it difficult for Bitcoin to maintain its monopoly.
Mike McGlone has been consistently bearish on Bitcoin recently.
It's worth mentioning, however, that Mike McGlone was a prominent Bitcoin bull in the past, predicting multiple times that Bitcoin would become "digital gold" and rise to over $100,000.
However, his views have shifted towards a bearish bias in recent years, particularly during the 2022-2023 bear market, where he accurately predicted price declines on several occasions. His predictive style is typically quite extreme, and his prediction of a drop to $10,000 is considered a "worst-case scenario," not the mainstream market consensus. Currently, several institutions, such as VanEck, Standard Chartered, and Bernstein, maintain a more optimistic outlook, predicting that Bitcoin prices may continue to reach new all-time highs in 2026.
As for McGlone's main reasons for being bearish on Bitcoin, based on his previous views, they include the following:
- Excessive competition: Unlike gold, which has only a few precious metal competitors, the crypto market has seen millions of digital assets emerge, leading to fragmented funds and weakening Bitcoin's dominance.
- Macroeconomic pressures: He described the current economic environment as similar to that before the 2008 financial crisis, where once liquidity was withdrawn, the impact would first fall on highly sensitive Bitcoin. The continuously declining ratio of Bitcoin to gold is already considered a leading indicator.
- Poor risk-adjusted performance: Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns have lagged even during periods of stock market rally.
Further Reading: 50th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods System | Bloomberg's Mike McGlone: Bitcoin is on its way to "replacing gold"
Further Reading: Bloomberg Analyst Warns: Bitcoin Will Fall to $50,000 Next Year! BTC Faces Three Major Fatal Flaws
