The latest on-chain data is revealing a harsh reality on Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform attracting millions of users globally. According to analysis from DeFi blockchain data firm Oasis, out of over 1.7 million addresses that have traded on Polymarket, approximately 70% of traders experienced losses, while only 30% recorded profits. Even more remarkably, profits on this platform are heavily concentrated in a very small group, with less than 0.04% of addresses accounting for over 70% of the total actual profits, equivalent to approximately $3.7 billion.
The detailed figures show that most participants in Polymarket only earn very small profits, if any. Traders with profits ranging from $0 to under $1,000 account for 24.56% of all addresses, but their share of the total system profit is only equivalent to 0.86%. To earn more than $1,000 in profit, traders need to be in the top 4.9% of the most effective trading addresses. This clearly reflects the "winner-takes-most" structure on Polymarket, where profits are not evenly distributed but concentrated in the hands of an extremely elite group.
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This is not surprising considering how Polymarket operates. It's a prediction market based on market-based probability, where players bet on the outcomes of major events such as the US presidential election, the Fed's interest rate policy, legal rulings, or even the results of major sporting events. Traders with an advantage are often large trading wallets, using quantitative strategies, Bayesian probability analysis, tracking money flow, and even automating trades through bots. Meanwhile, the majority of retail users often participate with a "news-driven" mentality, easily buying high and selling Dip when the market is highly volatile.
Polymarkets boomed particularly during the 2024 US election period, when Donald Trump won and officially returned to the White House as president in late 2024. Predictive markets related to election results, economic policies, tariffs, and currency direction under Trump attracted massive volume . Many large wallets took advantage of the discrepancies between market probabilities and traditional polling data to accumulate profits, while the majority of small retail traders suffered losses due to late entry or following crowd sentiment.
