Gate Ventures' latest weekly report suggests that while the global market looks stable at the end of the year, fundamental risks are gradually shifting to a structural level, potentially leading to price volatility and valuation adjustments rather than a trend reversal.
Risk drivers stem from weakening energy, policy uncertainty, and slowing Capital spending, while equities remain high and expectations for AI-driven growth remain undiminished. This leads to a more cautious and stratified allocation of Capital .
- Macroeconomic risks are shifting towards structural ones; prioritizing valuation/pace adjustments over reversals.
- Cryptocurrency market volatility: BTC and ETH are weak, but market Capital hasn't decreased; Capital is shifting to unconventional sectors.
- VCs last week: 9 Capital rounds totaling approximately $296 million, a slight decrease; focus on infrastructure and compliance.
Macroeconomics: surface stability, increased structural risk
Gate Ventures believes that risks are accumulating in a structural direction, increasing the likelihood of future supply constraints and price volatility.
The energy sector has contracted for two consecutive quarters. Coupled with policy uncertainty and slowing Capital spending, this context could increase the risk of supply shortages and price volatility , although the market as a whole still appears stable at the end of the year.
Meanwhile, stock indices remain high and expectations of AI-driven growth remain unshaken. According to the report, the most likely scenario is a market correction in valuations and growth rates, rather than a trend reversal, leading to more cautious and diversified capital flows.
Cryptocurrency and VC: Divergent flows, slowing Capital pace.
BTC and ETH are weak, ETFs are experiencing net outflows, and sentiment indicators are low, but the overall cryptocurrency market Capital is not declining in a systemic manner.
The report describes the digital asset market as continuing to be volatile: although leading assets are weakening, the cash flow structure shows a shift from the leading group to unconventional segments, reflecting a significant degree of divergence. This suggests that investors are still seeking opportunities for relatively high returns within manageable risk ranges, rather than completely shifting to risk aversion.
In the venture capital sector, this week saw the announcement of nine Capital rounds totaling approximately $296 million, a slight decrease from the previous week. The Capital was primarily focused on infrastructure and compliance-related areas, indicating a more cautious approach towards the end of the year and a preference for long-term expansion potential along with compliance assurances. Gate Ventures assesses that VC activity is returning to a more reasonable pace and could lay the groundwork for a structural recovery in early 2026.
