In his latest video, Lorenzo Valente, Head of Digital Asset Research at ARK Invest, stated that stablecoins have entered a stage of development drastically different from the past. From trading volume and institutionalization to their linkage with the US Treasury system, stablecoins are no longer merely an extension of annual performance, but are beginning to be incorporated into the core discussions of the global financial architecture in 2026.
Trading volume is steadily increasing, and a structural growth trend is taking shape.
Valente stated that by the end of 2025, monthly stablecoin transaction volume had stabilized at $2-2.5 trillion, showing no significant decline since the beginning of the year. He pointed out that this continued expansion at a high base indicates that stablecoins have entered a phase of structural growth, rather than a short-term cycle.
Against this backdrop, market focus has shifted from "whether it can surpass Visa" to whether stablecoins can continue to play an important role in global payments and capital flows after 2026.
Supply grows in tandem with users, and the expansion curve continues to extend.
From a supply-side perspective, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has grown from approximately $220 billion at the beginning of the year to $255 billion by 2025. Valente explicitly points out that this growth is not a one-off jump, but rather a continuous upward trend.
He also mentioned that the relevant indicators, such as supply, number of active addresses, and number of transactions, are still on an upward trend, which is the main basis for his judgment that stablecoins will continue to grow in 2026.
The market is highly concentrated in Tether and Circle, whose market share advantage continues.
Regarding market structure, Valente's outlook for 2026 is quite clear. He points out that the stablecoin market is currently highly concentrated on two major issuers, Tether and Circle, and believes this pattern will continue in the future.
Valente stated that the main reason is not a single factor, but includes the advantages of existing liquidity networks, multi-chain deployment, and the degree of connection with the traditional financial system, making it difficult for disruptive changes to occur in the short term to affect the market share advantage of the two major players.
Cash flow is highly concentrated, and issuers continue to control the core of the industry.
Valente points out that stablecoin issuers currently capture more than half of the application-layer revenue in the entire blockchain industry. He states that as long as the supply of stablecoins continues to grow, reserve assets remain primarily short-term US Treasury bonds, and the interest rate environment does not experience a drastic reversal, stablecoin issuers will continue to be the industry's primary source of cash flow after 2026.
US Treasury holdings rankings climb, macroeconomic influence continues to expand
At the macro level, Valente specifically pointed out that stablecoin issuers are gaining a continuously rising position within the US Treasury bond system. By the end of 2025, stablecoins as a whole had risen to become the 17th or 18th largest holder of US Treasury bonds globally, surpassing several sovereign nations.
He pointed out that as the scale of supply expands, there is still room for this ranking to rise, and the relevant trend has been regarded as strategically significant by the US policy circle.
Emerging market demands are driving innovation focus overseas.
On the application side, Valente's key outlook for 2026 focuses on emerging markets. He stated that the regions with the strongest demand for dollar-denominated stablecoins are not the United States, but rather Latin America, Asia, and countries with high inflation or unstable local exchange rates.
Valente stated that users in these markets not only need dollar-denominated assets but also want access to yield-generating products linked to the US risk-free interest rate. With the GENIUS Act explicitly restricting stablecoins within the US from directly paying interest to holders, Valente believes that related innovations will continue to develop in markets outside the US.
Finally, Valente points out that stablecoins are gradually transforming from a part of the crypto industry into global payment and clearing tools, an extension of the dollar's influence, and an important structural holder in the US Treasury system. 2026 is not a turning point, but rather a continuation and amplification of existing trends.
(2026 Financial Turning Point: Crypto Banks, Stablecoins, and the Mainstreaming of AI Payments)
This article, "Ark 2026 Stablecoin Outlook: Tether and Circle Continue to Dominate Market Share, Innovation Momentum Shifts to Emerging Markets," first appeared on ABMedia, a ABMedia .
