In a recent interview, Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, stated that the crypto market will undergo a significant structural shift in 2026. This shift is driven by two main factors: first, the continued rise in investor demand for safe-haven and alternative value stores in the global macroeconomic environment; and second, the gradual clarification of crypto regulatory frameworks in major markets. He pointed out that with increased regulatory clarity and continued institutional investment, crypto assets are accelerating towards a more institutionalized and mainstream development phase.
With macroeconomic imbalances unresolved, Bitcoin remains a core store of value asset.
Pandl points out that the crypto market encompasses diverse technologies and applications, but in terms of overall fund flows, Bitcoin remains the most core asset, primarily driven by global demand for alternative stores of value.
He stated that widening global debt and fiscal deficits, along with increased risks of currency devaluation, continue to prompt investors to adjust their asset allocations. These macroeconomic imbalances show no signs of improvement, and related investment behavior is expected to persist until 2026.
The regulatory process is clear, with US market structure legislation serving as a key support.
On the regulatory front, Pandl reviewed recent developments chronologically. He pointed out that Grayscale's victory in the Bitcoin ETP lawsuit in 2023, the listing of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs in 2024, and the passage of the GENIUS Act in the United States in 2025, among other regulatory adjustments, indicate that the regulatory direction is gradually taking shape.
Looking ahead to 2026, Grayscale anticipates that the U.S. Congress will continue to advance legislation on the crypto market structure, establishing a more comprehensive federal-level regulatory framework for digital assets.
Cross-party consensus is key; token issuance is expected to become a new option for businesses.
Pandl pointed out that although the Market Structures Act was delayed due to the government shutdown, bipartisan negotiations continued, and it is expected to return to the legislative track in early 2026. He emphasized that maintaining bipartisanness on crypto issues is crucial for the long-term development of the industry.
He further stated that if the bill passes, it will provide a clear legal definition for most digital assets and may encourage new entrepreneurs, established companies, and even large listed companies to incorporate tokens into their capital structures, alongside stocks and bonds.
The price outlook is slightly positive, but still depends on regulatory progress.
Regarding price expectations, Grayscale believes Bitcoin has the potential to reach new highs in the first half of 2026. Pandl points out that expectations of a weaker dollar, a rate-cutting environment, and the strengthening of value storage assets such as gold and silver are all favorable for the performance of Bitcoin and some mainstream crypto assets.
However, he also cautioned that the optimistic scenario is contingent on the continued progress of regulatory legislation, and if the crypto issue becomes highly politicized in an election year, it will pose a downside risk to the market.
Crypto ETFs continue to expand, with staking functionality becoming a new focus of competition.
Pandl stated that the launch of crypto ETFs has accelerated significantly with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) providing universal listing standards. Grayscale has recently launched ETFs for Solana (including staking), XRP, Dogecoin, and Chainlink, and expects more mainstream tokens with practical applications and institutional demand to be added to its product line in 2026.
He pointed out that pledge returns will become an important factor in differentiating ETFs, and will be developed in tandem with derivatives such as options and futures.
The DAT hype is cooling down, and its influence will be limited in 2026.
Regarding the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) issue, Pandl believes that the operating model of related companies is similar to that of closed-end funds, with low trading frequency and limited impact on market prices. Although it can still meet the needs of some investors to allocate crypto assets through stock channels, it is not expected to be a major driving force in the market by 2026.
(Grayscale 2026 Digital Asset Outlook Report: Which Tokens Are Worth Investing In?)
This article, "Grayscale 2026 Crypto Outlook: BTC Expected to Reach New Highs in the First Half of the Year, with Regulation and Hedging Demand as Key Supports," first appeared on ABMedia ABMedia .
