On the first day of 2026, Bitcoin continued its volatile trading pattern. After briefly breaking through $89,000 at 10 pm last night, it quickly fell back to the $87,000 level. As of press time, it is currently trading at $87,894, with the bulls and bears still locked in a tug-of-war.
How does the market predict 2026?
Given Bitcoin's continued fluctuations within a narrow range, let's take a look at the latest order book data from the prediction market Polymarket .
Regarding the question of "What price will Bitcoin reach before 2027?" , there is an 80% chance of it breaking through $100,000 again before the end of the year, a 65% chance of reaching $110,000, and a 48% chance of reaching $120,000...; the same set of market data also shows a 77% chance of falling back to $75,000 and a 57% chance of dropping to $65,000.
It cannot be ruled out that 2026 may see a sharp fluctuation with a "surge followed by correction" or a situation where the market continues to bottom out before rebounding.
Official rule addition: If, during the period up to 23:59 (Eastern Time) on December 31, 2026, the final "lowest price" of any candlestick in the Binance 1-minute Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) trading session is equal to or lower than the price specified in the title, then the market will be immediately judged as "Yes". Otherwise, the market will be judged as "No".
Disagreements within the Federal Reserve mean interest rate policy remains uncertain.
The latest minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting reveal that even though officials have decided to cut interest rates, there is still significant disagreement within the Fed regarding whether to continue adjusting rates. Some policymakers believe that after this (December) adjustment, interest rates may need to remain unchanged for a period of time to observe changes in economic data.
Meanwhile, according to the CME FedWatch tool, investors currently expect a greater than 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at its meeting in late January. However, other forecasting platforms believe that the possibility of another rate cut before the middle of this year remains high.
Analysts: Loose monetary environment favors crypto assets
Many cryptocurrency market participants believe that once the Federal Reserve officially enters a cycle of interest rate cuts, the cost of capital will decrease, which will benefit the performance of risky assets, with Bitcoin often seen as a major beneficiary.
Timot Lamarre, head of market research at cryptocurrency custody firm Unchained, said that a shift to looser monetary policy means the market will have more abundant dollar liquidity, and Bitcoin usually reacts first in such an environment.
Owen Lau, Managing Director of Clear Street, also pointed out that interest rate cuts could be a major catalyst for the cryptocurrency market in 2026, potentially attracting retail investors back and increasing institutional investor participation in crypto assets.
