When you enter an unknown-catalyst trade (timing and/or magnitude unclear), one important angle many miss is who you’re actually buying from. It’s easy to focus on why the trade should work and ignore the existing holders already sitting in the same thesis. Many of them have been in for weeks or months, earlier in before you. As time drags on opportunity cost, boredom and mental fatigue set in. Eventually, they’re fine cutting and redeploying elsewhere. When that happens, their supply hits regardless of your conviction or thesis. If you don’t account for this, you risk getting shaken out as a "late" entrant not because the idea was wrong, but because your entry was misaligned with the remaining supply. Paradoxically, this is also why these setups can offer the highest risk-reward: the catalyst isn’t priced in. If it were obvious, it would already be front-run.