Last week, I was looking at a project on my watchlist that had been trending down.
I considered buying, but didn’t see a near-term catalyst or narrative and decided to skip since it wasn’t in my style of setups.
A week later, news drops of an CEX listing and it rips multiples.
Many would say, “You should’ve bought.”
But I’d say that’s mostly resulting - judging a decision purely by its outcome.
At the time, my decision was sound based on the information I had.
Sometimes good decisions lead to bad outcomes, and bad decisions lead to good ones. That’s why process > outcome in trading.
On the flip side, if you did buy and it ripped, be careful how you attribute that win.
Luck can feel like skill in the moment. If you mistake randomness for edge, you’ll size up on the next trade and that’s how trades blow up.
