Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) stock – ticker MSTR – experienced a difficult 2025, falling 49.3% due to sustained selling pressure, bringing the share price to its lowest level since the end of September 2024.
Entering 2026, the outlook remains challenging as the company faces the risk of being removed from the MSCI index with the decision deadline approaching on January 15, 2026.
Why will MicroStrategy stock struggle in 2025?
2025 is proving to be a challenging year for the crypto market in general, and digital asset funds are no exception. This is clearly demonstrated by Strategy's stock performance .
Market data shows that MSTR shares lost 49.3% of their value in 2025, with these losses increasing sharply in the second half of the year.
MSTR stock performance. Source: Google FinanceAnalyst Ted Pillows highlighted the extent of the decline, stating that MSTR has fallen by as much as 66% in just the past six months. According to Pillows, nearly $90 billion of the company's market Capital has been wiped out.
He pointed to several reasons, starting with Bitcoin's price failing to meet expectations . The largest cryptocurrency ended 2025 down 5.7%, completely defying many experts' bullish predictions and putting significant pressure on Strategy's stock.
Strategy has a strong connection to Bitcoin as it is the company that owns the largest amount of this asset class, with 672,497 BTC – equivalent to approximately 3.2% of the total global Bitcoin supply.
As BeInCrypto previously reported , Strategy has spent over $50 billion accumulating Bitcoin, primarily through bond issuance and stock sales. Meanwhile, the company's software segment only generates $460 million in annual revenue – a very small figure compared to the scale of its exposure to digital assets.
Strategy currently holds approximately $59 billion worth of Bitcoin, while its market Capital hovers around $46 billion, raising concerns about valuation and balance sheet risks.
"Currently, this token is trading at a 20%–25% discount, which is about 20%–25% lower than the value of the Bitcoin they hold," Pillows Chia .
Besides the price of BTC, Pillows also points out several other unfavorable factors such as:
"Severe share dilution, risk of delisting, pressure for Delisting, and the complete disappearance of net asset value (NAV) differences."
Nevertheless, the company continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings . In fact, Strategy has emphasized that its balance sheet is strong enough to withstand large fluctuations in Bitcoin prices.
“If the price of BTC drops to our Medium purchase price of $74,000, the company’s assets would still be 5.9 times larger than the convertible debt, which we call the ‘ BTC Rating’ of the debt. If BTC is at $25,000, this number would be 2.0 times,” Strategy announced.
MSCI's decision poses a significant risk to the strategy.
While the overall market situation may change, Strategy is facing an imminent challenge related to MSCI's decision.
MSCI has proposed reclassifying companies whose digital assets account for more than 50% of their total assets as “investment funds.” This could disqualify these businesses from being included in major stock indices.
According to Strategy, the impact is significant. If the final decision, expected on January 15, 2026, is to remove the company from the MSCI indices, its stock will be negatively affected.
JPMorgan estimates that being removed from the MSCI index could trigger Capital outflows of up to $8.8 billion . This would further exacerbate pressure on Strategy's share price, given the fragile sentiment among retail investors. Therefore, all attention is now focused on MSCI's decision, as it could shape Strategy's short-term performance.
