Zcash price may not break through as soon as expected — Here's why

Zcash prices are maintaining a clear upward trend, raising expectations of an upcoming breakout. ZEC is continuously setting new highs, demonstrating external market strength.

However, a closer analysis of retail investor behavior and Derivative positions reveals weakening demand, raising questions about whether the current uptrend can sustain.

Zcash holders are expressing doubts.

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is giving a warning signal for the price of Zcash . On the 2-day chart, CMF is forming a lower high while ZEC is setting a new higher high. This contradiction suggests that money flow is decreasing, even though the price is still rising.

Such divergences often signal underlying distribution. It's possible investors are selling when prices rise instead of buying to accumulate. When buying pressure weakens during a price increase, prices are very likely to reverse and fall, especially if overall market sentiment doesn't improve.

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Macroeconomic indicators also reinforce the negative outlook. The Zcash funding rate is deeply negative on most major Derivative exchanges. This suggests that Short orders are completely overwhelming Longing orders, reflecting traders' expectations of a sharp price decline.

A negative funding rate means traders have to pay extra fees to hold Short positions. This indicates they believe the price will soon fall. A prolonged negative funding rate is often accompanied by decreased buying demand in the spot market and further reinforces the negative view of this coin.

ZEC prices may adjust.

Currently, the price of ZEC is forming an ascending wedge pattern, a pattern that often predicts significant volatility. The coin is trading around $522 at the time of writing, still below the $528 resistance level. While the price structure supports a potential breakout, there is no clear confirmation yet.

Despite the wedge pattern, weak CMF, and negative funding rate, the risk of a sharp price drop remains high. If selling pressure intensifies, ZEC could fall to the support level of $448. If this level is breached, the price could continue to decline to $403, confirming a bearish reversal.

An upward price scenario remains possible if macroeconomic factors improve. If buying pressure strengthens, ZEC could potentially break through the $528 resistance level. If the breakout is confirmed, the price could rise to $607, and a further target of $702 could be reached, completely negating the current possibility of a bearish reversal.