For the Canadian Homeowner’s— Don’t let the room temp IQ mortgage brokers convince you that variable is a smart move here. Canada’s economy is bottomed out and every month you weight the short term (staying variable, capturing a 40 bps spread) over the medium term (locking in a solid 3/5 year fixed rate), you will lose money through the life of your mortgage. It will be too late to switch to fixed if/when they hike rates. The first chart clearly shows how the 5-year leads the overnight rate. You need to get ahead of the central bank. Just remember this: Variable will always be most attractive at the bottom of a cutting cycle, just as fixed will be most attractive at top of a hiking cycle.