Bittensor (TAO) is attracting attention with its strong surge at the beginning of 2026, thanks to a price breakout accompanied by a surge in volume , indicating that capital flows and market sentiment are leaning towards the buy side.
The momentum comes from the general recovery of the crypto market and news of Grayscale's ETF filing, while Derivative data reflects traders favoring Longing positions. If TAO holds the key technical zone, the bullish scenario could be strengthened.
- TAO rose 9.55% in 24 hours, with volume increasing 42% to $89.87 million.
- The catalysts include a market recovery and Grayscale's ETF filing for Bittensor Trust (ticker symbol: GTAO).
- A more bullish scenario depends on TAO closing the daily candle and maintaining above $235.
TAO rose in price today due to market recovery and ETF expectations.
TAO's acceleration is primarily driven by the recovery of the crypto market and the news that Grayscale filed an S-1 application to convert Bittensor Trust into an ETF in the US, triggering expectations of new capital inflows.
On January 2nd, TAO surged 9.55% in 24 hours, trading around $242 at the time of recording. Simultaneously, market participation also increased significantly, with volume jumping 42% to $89.87 million.
A price increase accompanied by increased volume is often XEM as a signal of heightened interest from both traders and investors. Given that TAO had been trading sideways for several weeks, this surge in liquidation makes the price increase story even more noteworthy.
A notable catalyst is Grayscale Investments' ETF filing dated December 30, 2025. Grayscale filed Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to convert Bittensor Trust into an ETF (ticker: GTAO).
If approved, this could become a publicly traded product in the US linked to TAO, similar to how Grayscale pursued its previous ETF strategy for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Expectations of an "easy to buy - easy to hold" approach often have a strong impact on market sentiment.
Derivative data leans toward Longing positions and reinforces the bullish trend.
TAO is also supported by traders' confidence in leveraged Longing positions, as data shows that bullish bets outweigh sell orders.
According to Derivative data from Coinglass, traders are favoring Longing-leveraged positions over Short. The levels of $221.7 and $250.2 are described as "overleveraged" zones, where positions are heavily accumulated.
Specifically, there are approximately $4.65 million in leveraged Longing positions and $1.73 million in leveraged Short positions built around these levels. This correlation indirectly reflects the short-term sentiment still leaning towards an uptrend for TAO.
Technical analysis suggests that TAO has broken out of consolidation and is opening up a higher target.
TAO retested the $207 support level and consolidated for nearly two weeks before breaking out of the sideways range; if the daily candle closes above $235 and holds, the price could head towards $285 with a potential gain of approximately 18%.
On the daily chart, TAO retested the crucial support zone of $207 during a period of market uncertainty. The price then consolidated around this area for nearly two weeks, forming a foundation for a breakout when buying pressure returned.
The recent upward momentum has helped TAO break out of the consolidation zone, ending its prolonged "containment" state. The key condition emphasized is that TAO needs to close the daily candle above $235 to solidify the probability of an extended uptrend.
If the candle closes above $235, a potential increase of approximately 18% could push TAO toward the next resistance zone around $285. However, this bullish argument remains valid if TAO holds above $235; a loss of this level could invalidate the scenario.
In terms of trend strength, the Average Directional Index (ADX) is recorded at 31, higher than the 25 threshold. This is generally interpreted as the current trend being strong enough to maintain upward momentum on the chart.
The forecast on X makes TAO the center of attention.
Some forecasts on X suggest that TAO could increase by 40%–50% or even over 60% in the next few days, contributing to heightened interest.
On X, several opinions are spreading rapidly suggesting that the price of TAO could increase by 40%–50% . Even more optimistically, another forecast predicts that TAO could rise by over 60% in the coming days.
These figures are personal predictions and not guaranteed to happen, but they can influence crowd sentiment, especially when combined with a recent price breakout and a sharp increase in volume .
Conclude
TAO has broken out of its prolonged consolidation zone and is being supported by increasing volume, Grayscale ETF expectations, and a Longing -leaning Derivative trend; the $285 target will be more achievable if TAO holds above $235.
- TAO has broken out of its prolonged consolidation zone, opening up the possibility of a further increase of approximately 18%.
- The bullish argument depends on TAO maintaining above $235.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did TAO surge in early 2026?
TAO rose thanks to the crypto market recovery, a sharp increase in volume , and expectations from Grayscale's ETF filing for Bittensor Trust, which shifted short-term sentiment to positive.
What does Grayscale's ETF filing have to do with TAO?
Grayscale filed Form S-1 with the SEC to convert Bittensor Trust into an ETF (ticker: GTAO), creating expectations that TAO may have a US-listed trading product linked to this asset.
What is TAO's most important technical milestone right now?
The $235 mark is XEM crucial: if TAO closes the daily candle above this level and holds, the probability of a move towards the $285 region will be higher; a loss of $235 could weaken the bullish scenario.
What does an ADX of 31 indicate in a TAO analysis?
An ADX above 25 is generally interpreted as a sufficiently strong trend; a level of 31 suggests upward momentum is present and could support the continuation of the trend, provided the price holds key levels.
