XRP is locking up supply on exchanges at its lowest level since 2018, while Ripple's escrow unlocks are only adding a small net supply, significantly weakening short-term selling pressure.
This development is occurring as XRP stabilizes below $2 and market sentiment shifts from concern to assessment of structural strength. However, the potential for price expansion remains dependent on spot demand, crypto risk appetite, and clearer regulatory signals.
- XRP balances on exchanges have fallen to around 1.6 billion Token, the lowest since 2018, easing immediate selling pressure.
- Unlocking 1 billion XRP in escrow at the beginning of January only created a net supply of about 300 million because the majority remained locked up.
- The future price trend will depend more on demand, legal factors (e.g., the CLARITY Act), and macroeconomic liquidation .
XRP balances on exchanges fell to an 8-year Dip , easing selling pressure.
XRP balances on exchanges have fallen to around 1.6 billion Token, the lowest level since 2018, indicating that the amount of coins available for immediate sale is shrinking.
Exchange behavior reveals a notable shift: XRP outflows surged towards the end of 2025, while price volatility narrowed and XRP stabilized below $2. According to Glassnode data, the balance on the exchange fell to around 1.6 billion Token, the lowest since 2018 ( XEM Glassnode data ).
This decline is described as a 57% drop from the October 2025 peak in the original text. When supply on the exchange is lower, sell-offs are usually less "deep" due to thin selling liquidation , but this also means prices are unlikely to break out strongly without new money flowing into the market.
The key point is that the “net position change” leans towards net withdrawals, suggesting a trend of transferring Token to long-term custody rather than panic Dump . However, this structure doesn't automatically create a “supply shock”: price still needs spot buying, the crypto market's risk appetite, and a favorable regulatory environment.
Variables that could quickly reverse include debates about data quality, “hidden” exchange wallets, changes in macro liquidation , and especially the trend of Bitcoin. If Bitcoin weakens, market-wide risk appetite could decrease, overshadowing XRP's “short supply on exchanges” advantage.
Ripple's periodic escrow unlocking creates a small net supply.
The escrow unlock on January 1st released 1 billion XRP , but the majority remained locked, so the net supply is only about 300 million XRP.
On schedule, Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP, estimated to be worth approximately $1.85 billion in the original text, through its escrow mechanism ( XEM transaction/source mentioning escrow ). While this sounds large, the actual impact was significantly reduced as around 700 million XRP were quickly locked, leaving only 300 million XRP as net additional supply.
This pattern isn't new: history shows Ripple typically locks back around 60%–80% in each monthly unlock, meaning escrow events rarely create sustained selling pressure unless there are signs of behavioral change. The market therefore tends to “discount” the impact of periodic unlocks.
Concerns flared up when a transaction memo hinted at the possibility of a massive sell-off in 2026, but it was later confirmed to be a community joke and not an official message from Ripple ( XEM clarification post ). Once the information was clarified, the fear quickly subsided.
In terms of market structure, this unlocking has largely unchanged the supply picture: the pace of supply increases remains under control, while reducing short-term psychological "overhang." In the long term, the predictability of the escrow calendar allows traders to focus on real drivers such as demand, regulatory, and liquidation.
XRP could approach a “supply tightening” inflection point if demand increases.
With low supply on exchanges and limited net escrow, XRP may be more sensitive to demand surges, but the risk of two-way volatility remains high.
The current picture is described as including: periodic unlocking of escrow but large relocking, exchange supply hitting an 8-year Dip , sustained whale accumulation, and emerging legal catalysts such as the CLARITY Act . When these factors are present simultaneously, the market often struggles to maintain a "sideways" state for too long if there is a shift in momentum.
Positive side: Low floor inventory levels generally support higher long-term valuations if demand increases. Risk side: Sudden selling pressure causing short-term price drops is still possible, especially when liquidation is thin and overall market risk sentiment weakens. Therefore, a scenario of increased volatility is considered likely.
The catalysts mentioned include RLUSD expansion, On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) growth, or ETF expectations. Regardless of the driving factor, the current supply structure tends to make prices more prone to sharp swings (up or down) rather than staying steady, making the coming weeks crucial for the next direction.
Summary
XRP currently has a relatively "dry" supply base on exchanges, and its escrow mechanism is largely predictive, helping to reduce structural selling pressure. However, the price direction from now until 2026 will still depend primarily on actual demand, legal developments, and the liquidation conditions of the crypto market in general.
- XRP balances on exchanges are at an 8-year Dip , escrow is unlocked and controlled, and long-term investors continue to absorb the supply.
- Structural selling pressure has eased, but prices will be driven by demand, legal factors, and market liquidation as we enter 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is a decrease in XRP balances on exchanges important?
When fewer XRP are held on exchanges, the amount of Token available for immediate sale typically decreases, thereby weakening immediate selling pressure. However, the price will only rise sustainably if there is spot demand and new capital inflows.
Will unlocking 1 billion XRP in Escrow cause a sharp drop in price?
Not necessarily. In the period mentioned in the original text, approximately 700 million XRP were locked, leaving a net supply of only about 300 million XRP. The market typically reacts more strongly if the relocking rate decreases or if there are signs of unusual selling.
Could XRP surge simply due to a "shortage of supply on exchanges"?
A lack of supply on exchanges may support the uptrend, but it's not enough to guarantee a breakout. XRP still needs demand, positive risk appetite from the crypto market, and a clearer regulatory environment to sustain its upward momentum.
What factors could cause the current structure to reverse rapidly?
Variables include changes in macroeconomic liquidation , Bitcoin trends, debates about data quality (hidden exchange wallets), and market sentiment shocks. If these factors worsen, low exchange reserves will still not prevent downward volatility.
