Memecoin TRUMP surges 15%: What should traders watch next?

Memecoin Official Trump (TRUMP) is experiencing a short-term surge driven by speculative capital, but the long-term trend remains bearish and the risk of a sustained reversal is low.

Following weekend developments that brought Donald Trump back into the media spotlight, related memecoins surged in attention. However, data suggests the current rally is primarily driven by Derivative activity, making it susceptible to reversal if market sentiment shifts.

Trump's price surges due to speculation, Open Interest jumps.

TRUMP rose 8.6% in 24 hours, accompanied by a 35% increase in Open Interest, reflecting Derivative money flows and speculative sentiment driving up the price.

A rapidly increasing open interest is often XEM as a signal of new market entry, but it doesn't automatically mean a sustainable uptrend. Since much of the momentum comes from short-term speculation, volatility can be high and Dump-offs can occur quickly if expectations weaken.

At the same time, the World Liberty Financial (WLFI) Token also surged. According to data shown on CoinMarketCap, WLFI increased over the past 24 hours (see here: WLFI on CoinMarketCap ). This fact reinforces the context of the "flow of attention" spreading to related assets.

Trump's long-term trend remains bearish despite a rebound.

TRUMP had previously surged during earlier rallies, but after each one, the price returned to a predominantly downtrend.

In April, TRUMP surged approximately 90% to $16.40, then entered a prolonged downtrend with a few technical rebounds. By the end of October, the Token had increased 72% in less than three weeks, from $5.55 to $9.57, but the gains were also completely reversed.

The "strong rebound followed by further decline" pattern can repeat if buying pressure is only temporary. This is especially noteworthy with memecoins, where volatility often depends on sentiment, short-term trading, and news.

The RSI and CMF indicators continue to lean towards the selling side.

The RSI shows bearish momentum remains dominant, while the CMF at -0.32 implies strong selling pressure persists.

The RSI maintains a downward sloping position, reflecting insufficient buying pressure to reverse the larger structure. Meanwhile, the deeply negative CMF (shown at -0.32) is often interpreted as net outflow, reinforcing the scenario that the current rally may be a technical rebound rather than the start of a long-term uptrend.

A reversal to an upward trend is still possible, but it's a less likely scenario.

Trump could see a surge if Bitcoin strengthens and memecoin explodes early in the year, but an "explosive" breakout scenario is considered less likely.

Theoretically, Bitcoin's strength and overall market euphoria could push Trump to the $8 region or higher. However, with a declining long-term trend and negative money flow indicators, a sustainable reversal requires further confirmation signals rather than relying solely on short-term momentum.

The H4 chart shows a potential buying zone, but the risk remains high.

The 4-hour chart shows that the local resistance at $5–$5.1 has been breached, opening up the possibility of a retest for buying, but tight risk management is required.

A Vai of the $5–$5.1 range could create a "resistance-support" flip. If the price retests and holds, this could be a more favorable entry point than chasing the price.

Another scenario is for the price to break through $5.6 and then retest as support to enter a trade, but this carries higher risk due to potential volatility and the possibility of a false breakout. Traders should prioritize a clear exit plan, especially when the larger-time trend does not favor the buyers.

Key invalidation level: a break below $4.94 would worsen the H4 structure.

If the price falls below the swing Dip of $4.94, the 4-hour chart structure could turn bearish, weakening the argument for a buy order.

In the context of a long-term downtrend, identifying the “invalidation point” is crucial. The $4.94 level is Vai : a breach of this level could trigger a sharp increase in selling pressure as short-term Longing positions are stopped out.

Traders should prioritize taking profits and limit expectations of long-term reversals.

The sensible strategy is to take advantage of short-term rallies to lock in profits, while remaining cautious about expectations of a long-term reversal under Trump.

Trump's surge was unexpected and gave traders a "breath of fresh air," but trend data and money flow do not yet support a sustainable reversal scenario. If considering opening a buy position, it is necessary to set realistic profit targets, Chia orders, and closely monitor the support/resistance levels mentioned above to avoid getting trapped when the market reverses.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Trump's price surge in the last 24 hours?

Trump's price surged due to increased attention and speculative activity, evidenced by an 8.6% increase in 24 hours and a 35% rise in Open Interest, indicating the opening of many new Derivative positions.

What does a 35% increase in Open Interest tell us?

An increase in open interest indicates a rise in open positions in the Derivative market, often associated with speculation and high volatility. It doesn't guarantee a long-term uptrend, especially when buying pressure is primarily short-term.

Is Trump likely to reverse his long-term bullish trend?

It's possible that if Bitcoin strengthens and memecoins surge, prices could head to higher levels. However, the long-term trend remains bearish, and negative CMF indicates selling pressure, so a sustained reversal is now XEM a less likely scenario.

What technical indicators are being watched on the 4-hour timeframe?

The $5–$5.1 region is an area that has just been broken through and could be retested as support. A breakout above $5.6 followed by a retest could also open a buying opportunity, but carries higher risk. A critical break below $4.94 is a significant trigger.