2025 is poised to be a landmark year, marked by the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology that have revitalized the global venture capital market. According to preliminary data from Crunchbase, $205 billion (approximately 295.2 trillion won) in investments were executed in the AI sector last year, marking the third-highest venture capital investment figure in history. Particularly noteworthy is the 32% increase in investment in the first half of the year compared to the previous year, representing the strongest rebound since 2022. The venture capital industry recently believes this trend will continue into 2026, with some industry insiders predicting a new phase of more concentrated funding allocation is imminent.
2025 also saw record-breaking single investments. In the second quarter, Scale AI raised $14.3 billion (approximately 20.5 trillion won), while in the first quarter, OpenAI raised a record-breaking $40 billion (approximately 576 trillion won). Both are representative companies in the AI industry and are expected to exert a significant influence on both the infrastructure and application of AI technology in the future.
Major venture capitalists unanimously believe that venture capital will continue to grow in 2026. Matthew M., managing director of Insight Partners, expects venture capital to grow by about 10% compared to 2025, while Tim Tully of Menlo Ventures predicts a potential increase of about 25%. He explained, "Large funds are significantly increasing their funding strength, and the investment rounds themselves are also expanding overall." Anders Ranum, a partner at Sapphire Ventures, also expressed optimism, believing it could "grow by 10-15%."
This year's venture capital landscape has also shown clear signs of change. Investors are particularly focused on areas such as AI infrastructure, defense technology, and medical AI. Tim Tully analyzed, "2026 will be a turning point for reduced hardware costs such as sensors and batteries, as well as increased physical implementation capabilities of AI." On the other hand, sectors that continue to underperform, such as vertical SaaS or cryptocurrencies, are likely to lose attention. Ranum emphasized, "Although demand has stagnated, the AI field, which combines technological strength with market results, will continue to attract capital."
Some predict that the entry barriers to the venture capital world will further increase. Funding is expected to concentrate more significantly on large growth rounds rather than large seed or Series A funding. In particular, AI-native companies or vertical AI solutions deeply integrated into industries are expected to be the focus of massive funding rounds. Consequently, smaller funds will likely have to shift towards early-stage investments or smaller-scale participation strategies.
The emergence of unicorns and the IPO market are also expected to change. Investors, with the added assumption that "high-growth AI companies can exceed high standards," are also actively predicting that the listing market may be more dynamic than last year. Some warn that liquidity acquisition strategies centered on mergers and acquisitions or the secondary market may still dominate, while others expect large-scale mergers and acquisitions to officially begin as the AI megatrend grows.
In conclusion, 2026 is likely to be a period of structural transformation for the AI industry and an evolutionary phase for venture capital. The era of securing investment simply by riding technological trends is over; profitability, efficiency, and technological competitive advantage will become the core criteria for attracting funding. Under this backdrop, the selection and concentration within the venture capital market are expected to become more pronounced.
