The latest ADP employment report for December 2025 (commonly known as the "mini-nonfarm payrolls") released by the United States shows that private sector employment has rebounded slightly, but overall labor market momentum remains weak. The data was also slightly lower than the market's original expectations, causing investors to remain cautious about the direction of the economy and monetary policy.
ADP employment report indicates a recovery, but momentum remains weak.
According to data released by ADP on January 7, 2026, the U.S. private sector added 41,000 jobs in December 2025, successfully reversing the negative growth in November. The previous month's data was also revised upwards, from a decrease of 32,000 to a decrease of 29,000. However, market economists had originally expected job growth of approximately 47,000 to 48,000 in December, so the actual result was still slightly below expectations.
Structurally, the December employment rebound was primarily driven by the service sector, with education and healthcare services, as well as leisure and hospitality, performing relatively steadily and becoming key drivers of the recovery. However, the overall increase in new jobs was limited, indicating that companies remain conservative in their recruitment efforts, and the labor market has not yet shown clear signs of strengthening. Regarding wages, the annual salary growth rate for retained employees remained at 4.4%, unchanged from the previous month, suggesting that wage pressures have not increased further.
Regarding this report, Adam Button, chief currency analyst at Forexlive, noted that the initial market reaction was rather muted, but sporadic buying appeared in the bond market, indicating that some investors interpreted the slightly weaker-than-expected employment data as a minor positive factor for future interest rate cuts. He further analyzed that the development of artificial intelligence may first impact professional and business service jobs; in contrast, government-related healthcare jobs have remained resilient over the past year, becoming an important force supporting overall employment, while the recovery of employment in the purely private sector has been slow.
Cryptocurrencies weaken
The capital markets reacted relatively calmly to the ADP report. Following the data release, the US dollar index (DXY) remained largely flat, experiencing only minor fluctuations, indicating that investors did not significantly adjust their positions despite the weaker-than-expected data. Stock and currency markets saw limited volatility, while bond yields declined slightly, reflecting some funds flowing into the bond market for safe-haven allocation.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin weakened slightly, falling below $92,000 at the time of writing to $91,600, a 2.1% drop in the past 24 hours, significantly lower than its relative high of $94,000 yesterday (6th). Ethereum followed a similar trend, falling to a low of $3,166, a 2.6% drop in the past 24 hours.
Next step: focus on non-farm payrolls
Looking ahead, market focus will shift to the official non-farm payrolls report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to be released this Friday. Because this data covers a broader range, it is often considered a key indicator for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to assess monetary policy. If the non-farm payrolls data also shows a moderate or even weak trend, it could further strengthen market bets on a rate cut in 2026; conversely, strong data could suppress easing expectations and provide support for the US dollar.
