According to Foresight News , Garrett Jin, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," posted on the X platform that recent comparisons between analysts and 2022 are completely absurd. The underlying logic differs fundamentally in long-term price patterns, macroeconomic context, investor composition, and supply/holding structure.
1. Macroeconomic Background: In March 2022, the US was in a period of high inflation and interest rate hikes, with capital primarily seeking to avoid risk. The current macroeconomic environment is the opposite: CPI and the US risk-free interest rate are declining, the AI technological revolution has increased the likelihood of the economy entering a long-term deflationary cycle, interest rates have entered a phase of rate cuts, and capital behavior reflects a risk-averse attitude.
2. Technical Structure: The 2021-2022 period saw a weekly double top (M-top) pattern, while the current weekly chart shows a break below the ascending channel, which is more likely a bear trap before a rebound back into the channel. The $62,000 to $80,850 range has seen significant consolidation and turnover, offering a better risk-reward profile for bullish positions.
3. Investor Structure: The market was retail-dominated from 2020 to 2022. Starting in 2023, the introduction of BTC ETFs introduced structural long-term holders, locking up supply and significantly reducing volatility. BTC volatility has shifted from a historical 80%-150% to 30%-60%. The biggest difference between the current (early 2026) BTC investor structure and that of 2022 is that the market has shifted from retail-dominated, highly leveraged speculation to institutional-dominated, structurally long-term holding.
