Wintermute: A few large-cap cryptocurrencies absorbed the vast majority of new capital; whether market participation can be expanded in 2026 depends on the direction of liquidity.

According to Mars Finance, Wintermute's 2026 outlook report states that the anticipated upward trend of 2025 did not materialize, and the traditional four-year cycle is becoming obsolete. A few large companies absorbed the vast majority of new capital, making the entire market struggle. Expanding market participation in 2026 depends on whether one of the following three scenarios significantly increases liquidity, moving it beyond a few large-cap assets: 1. ETFs and DATs expand their investment scope, such as SOL and XRP ETFs. 2. A strong rise in Bitcoin or Ethereum could create a wealth effect, but how much of this will ultimately flow back into the digital asset space remains uncertain. 3. Retail investors may shift their attention from stocks (artificial intelligence, rare earths, quantum technology) to cryptocurrencies, leading to new capital inflows and stablecoin issuance. (Least likely scenario)