I haven't written about the market for a while, mainly because there wasn't much to write about. Regarding $BTC, the future is still bright. With the booming development of AI, the significant devaluation of human labor, and the major trend of national credit bubbles, there are no signs of $BTC logic being disproven. The narrative of energy and energy currencies will continue to capture market attention. However, the consolidation of major asset classes has its own cycle, and the trading discipline is not to make aggressive moves below the annual moving average. Although there has been a slight rebound recently, the decline is not yet complete in the medium to long term. Patiently wait for a suitable risk-reward ratio / a signal of improvement in the long-term endogenous liquidity of the US dollar. Regarding Chinese assets, we have maintained since 2023 that the rise in the East and the fall in the West is the major trend for the next 10 years. The asset price trends of the past two years have initially proven the rationality of this framework. m.odaily.news/zh-CN/post/52057...… In addition, we have observed a new trend in equity-based fiscal policy among Chinese governments at all levels over the past year. Trillions of yuan in government funds (through primary and secondary markets) are shifting from traditional land-based revenue to the equity market, aiming to address massive local debt and fiscal difficulties through equity appreciation. In fact, the past year has been a period of rapid inflow, or rather, accumulation, of these tied-up funds. Therefore, we have clearly seen: 1. A robust resurgence of the IPO market linked to primary and secondary markets after many years. 2. A-shares have been primarily driven by index performance over the past year. Therefore, in the next 3-5 years, in addition to a series of fundamental drivers, the A-share market will continue to be supported by the will of the top leadership and the continuous inflow of government funds. Beta performance will continue, and core sectors will begin their main upward trend. Looking ahead, in the next 2-3 years, we will also see the rapid penetration of AI into various industries. This will again create opportunities for some companies to grow from a market capitalization of 10 billion to dominate all competitors in other industries, and will be a major driving force for the prosperity of the M&A market. Left hand $BTC, right hand: Chinese assets Embracing a decade of price alpha @MetricsVentures
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