As gold prices break historical highs and approach $5,000, Bitcoin, hailed as "digital gold," has failed to exhibit corresponding safe-haven properties, leaving many investors puzzled.
In an exclusive interview, Tom Lee, Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, offered a key explanation for this phenomenon: the market is facing a historic deleveraging shock, and the threat of quantum computing is changing investors' preferences for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Chain contraction of funds
In a recent interview , Fundstrat founder Tom Lee stated that the current market conditions are a "necessary shakeout" aimed at forcing out highly leveraged positions. He pointed out that once the deleveraging is complete, Bitcoin still has the potential to reach $200,000.
Regarding Bitcoin's recent weakness amid safe-haven demand, Tom Lee stated bluntly that cryptocurrencies should have followed gold's trend, but adjustments in funding structures have hampered price increases. He specifically pointed out two key time points:
"First came the '1011' market shock, the largest deleveraging event in cryptocurrency history, whose repercussions are still being felt. Then, this week, cryptocurrencies initially stabilized, but were hit again by the sudden Greenland Statement. This statement triggered sharp fluctuations in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, leading to a new round of leveraged funds being withdrawn."
Tom Lee emphasized that, if these deleveraging liquidity factors are removed, the potential trend of cryptocurrencies is actually highly correlated with gold. The current price slump is more of a technical adjustment in terms of funding than a collapse in fundamentals.
Bitcoin's "quantum threat" and the rise of Ethereum
Regarding cryptocurrency selection, Tom Lee observes a subtle shift in market narrative. He believes the core value of cryptocurrencies in the future lies in their role as a "Settlement Layer" in global finance, which gives blockchains with smart contract capabilities a significant advantage.
"This is more of a story about Ethereum than a simple story about Bitcoin."
Despite facing headwinds from deleveraging and technological anxieties, Tom Lee remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. He believes that "the Bitcoin story is not over," the market is simply waiting for further clarity on the regulatory environment, and institutional investor adoption continues to grow steadily.
"I still don't think $200,000 for Bitcoin is a crazy prediction. At the current price, that's just a doubling of the price."
He cited historical data as evidence, pointing out that the "parabolic rise" of cryptocurrencies often occurs after a surge in the precious metals market. Gold and silver have already taken the lead, and if this historical pattern holds true, cryptocurrencies are expected to catch up in the coming years.
