Ethereum whales bought an additional $1.3 billion driven by interest in ERC-8004 — but one indicator still hinders the price surge.

Ethereum has recently regained attention following the launch of ERC-8004, a new AI-focused standard that helps automated agents on the blockchain achieve independent identity, credibility, and validation. This appears to be a major step forward that could improve market sentiment, and the price of Ethereum has risen nearly 2.5% in the past 24 hours following the event.

However, the market reaction showed the opposite. Although many whales have entered the market and the price has temporarily stabilized, the overall sentiment remains very negative. The disparity between technological progress and market confidence has now become a crucial factor determining Ethereum's next direction.

What is the Price Impact ? Why Ethereum's AI upgrade may not yet trigger a price surge.

ERC-8004 was created to support decentralized AI agents by providing them with on-chain identity, trust history, and dynamically transferable validation. Simply put, it enables machine systems to trust and transact with each other without a centralized platform. This represents a significant step forward for Ethereum in Vai as a long-term AI connector.

However, sentiment data suggests the market is no longer reacting as strongly as it did during Ethereum's previous major upgrade .

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When the Pectra upgrade rolled out on the mainnet in May 2025, positive sentiment towards Ethereum surged significantly. On launch day, the positive sentiment score reached nearly 259. And just three days later, it jumped sharply to 610, an increase of approximately 135%. This surge in sentiment fueled a sustained rise in Ethereum's price for several months until late summer (August), when the price peaked and sentiment reached its highest point of the year at nearly 749.

Currently, the situation is completely the opposite. During the release of ERC-8004, Ethereum's positive sentiment score hovered around 18, its lowest level in the past year. Compared to the benchmark of 259 at the launch of Pectra, current sentiment has dropped by more than 90%.

The reason lies in the nature of the two upgrades. Pectra is a protocol-level improvement, focusing on scalability, efficiency, and network fundamentals – directly impacting users and costs. ERC-8004, on the other hand, is more like an application-layer standard, crucial for long-term structural impact, but its practical effects are still early and largely unfelt by the market.

In summary, ERC-8004 is crucial for the future of Ethereum, but sentiment data suggests the market hasn't yet reflected that expectation in price at this time.

Whales are accumulating as the RSI begins to recover — but smart money remains cautious.

Although market sentiment remains subdued, on-chain observations offer a different perspective on how people are adjusting their positions. But let's XEM at the price chart first!

Technically, Ethereum showed a hidden bullish divergence signal from December 18th to January 25th. The price peaked lower, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a lower Dip . The RSI measures the momentum of the trend. This pattern usually indicates that selling pressure has eased, not a complete reversal. The subsequent recovery confirms stability, even avoiding a crash in the bear flag pattern.

Now, Ethereum's price only needs to close above $3,160 on the daily chart to break out of this bearish pattern.

As prices stabilized and selling pressure weakened, Ethereum whales began accumulating. Ethereum whales increased their holdings from 104.18 million ETH to 104.61 million ETH after the ERC-8004 announcement, adding approximately 430,000 ETH. At the Medium price, this is equivalent to an additional $1.3 billion in accumulated value.

This isn't just small-scale money driven by short-term sentiment, but rather a deliberate accumulation of funds with a long-term vision.

However, another factor dampens expectations of an immediate price increase: The Smart Money Index (which tracks the activity of the most efficient investment flows in history) remains below the key signal line. In previous cycles, strong rallies only truly began when this index crossed above it. The most recent breakout saw Ethereum's price increase by approximately 13%. This confirmation signal has yet to appear.

Overall, the message is clear: Whales are accumulating while prices are weak, focusing on the long term. Smart money hasn't entered the market yet due to weak sentiment. This is a period of position accumulation, not short-term speculation. This will likely prevent significant price fluctuations for Ethereum in the short term, thanks to ERC-8004.

Does the double Dip pattern open up the possibility of Ethereum reaching $4,000?

Only after understanding the psychology and trading positions does the overall price picture become clearer.

Ethereum has avoided the recent decline and is currently forming a double Dip (W) pattern on the daily timeframe. This pattern indicates buying pressure emerging at the same low price level, paving the way for a stronger recovery if resistance levels are broken.

This price structure creates clear thresholds at each step.

The first resistance zone is around $3,160. Above that, the neckline of the most important double Dip pattern is in the $3,390–$3,400 range. This is a crucial area. If the price can maintain above this level, the double Dip pattern will be confirmed, rather than just a tentative signal.

If the price reclaims this neckline and is confirmed, the next upside targets will be around $3,790 and $4,170. To continue toward the $4,410 mark, not only does the price need to be strong, but market sentiment must also be more positive, along with the participation of smart money.

Without this confirmation, the pattern is only potentially significant and insufficient to drive a bullish market. Conversely, a break below $2,930 would weaken the pattern's strength. A further loss below $2,780 would completely invalidate the double Dip structure, and Ethereum's price would risk a further sharp decline.