Bitcoin price today trades near $76,971 after crashing through multiple support levels in a single session, hitting a low of $74,502 before stabilizing. The move came as a convergence of macro shocks hit simultaneously, with Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair resetting rate expectations and geopolitical tensions at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port pushing risk sentiment into extreme fear.
Warsh Nomination And Iran Tensions Trigger Risk Off Cascade
The selloff was driven by two simultaneous shocks. Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair reset monetary policy expectations overnight. Warsh’s hawkish reputation and criticism of balance sheet expansion collapsed rate cut odds for the first half of 2026, sending the dollar sharply higher.
Reports of an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port added geopolitical risk to the mix, reigniting fears of U.S. Iran escalation and pushing oil prices higher.
Bitcoin failed to act as a hedge. Instead, it traded as a high beta risk asset, sold aggressively as investors raised cash to cover losses elsewhere. The dollar became the preferred refuge, not crypto or gold.
Spot Outflows Hit Highest Level Since November
Coinglass data shows $266.54 million in spot outflows on February 2, marking one of the largest single day distributions since the November correction. The magnitude of selling reflects panic rather than orderly repositioning.
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When spot outflows spike alongside a price crash, it typically signals capitulation from weaker hands. However, the macro backdrop suggests this may be the beginning of a repricing rather than a climactic bottom.
Weekly Chart Tests Critical 100 EMA Support
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has crashed through the 20 day EMA at $93,219 and the 50 day EMA at $95,519, now testing the critical 100 week EMA at $85,832. The session low at $74,502 briefly penetrated below this level before recovering.
The $74,000 to $78,000 zone represents major horizontal support that held during the 2024 consolidation. A weekly close below this level would shift the macro structure from correction to potential trend reversal.
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RSI has dropped to 38.85 on the weekly timeframe, approaching oversold territory but not yet at levels that have historically marked major bottoms. The indicator suggests more downside is possible before a sustainable reversal forms.
Short Term Structure Shows Capitulation Pattern
On the 2 hour chart, the crash from $90,000 to $74,500 occurred in less than 48 hours, creating a capitulation pattern characterized by accelerating selling and expanding volume. The Supertrend indicator flipped bearish at $80,251 and continues to track lower.
The Parabolic SAR sits at $77,534, marking immediate resistance for any recovery attempt. Price has recovered above this level at $76,983, suggesting short term stabilization may be forming.
The bounce from $74,502 shows some buying interest at lower levels, but the structure remains firmly bearish. Each recovery attempt over the past week has been sold into, and there is no evidence yet that this pattern has changed.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?
The trend remains firmly bearish while price trades below the weekly EMA cluster and macro headwinds persist.
- Bullish case: A weekly close above $85,832 would hold the 100 week EMA and signal that the crash was a liquidation event rather than the start of a deeper correction. That scenario requires geopolitical tensions to ease and the market to digest the Warsh nomination.
- Bearish case: A weekly close below $74,000 would break the 2024 support structure and expose the $68,378 zone where the 200 week EMA sits. With a hawkish Fed Chair incoming and geopolitical risk elevated, that scenario carries meaningful probability.
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