One day, if there’s ever a gold run and investors realize their “paper gold” can’t actually be redeemed for physical gold, Bitcoin will absolutely moon. Why? Because most people buying “paper gold”—whether it’s ETFs, futures, or gold accounts at banks—legally have zero obligation to ever get real gold. When these contracts expire, they can just settle in cash. No gold for you. You thought you were buying gold, but all you really bought was a price-tracking tool. This system works because almost nobody actually wants delivery; they just want exposure to price movements. Before expiry, people usually close or roll their positions. Less than 1% ever demand real delivery. But what if, one day, people do want the real thing? In 2011, hedge fund manager Kyle Bass dug into COMEX data and found $80 billion in open contracts, but only $2.7 billion worth of deliverable gold in the warehouse. He asked the head of delivery, “What if 4% of people ask for delivery?” The guy replied, “That never happens, we rarely go over 1%.” Kyle pressed, “But if it does?” The answer: “Price will solve everything.” Kyle said, “Thanks, I’ll take my gold.” And he actually helped the University of Texas endowment pull $1 billion in physical gold. He knew: paper claims and having it in your hand are two different things. This topic is back in the spotlight. In Feb 2025, Elon Musk questioned on X if America’s gold at Fort Knox is still there. Someone told him the last full public audit was in the 1950s—nothing since 1974. Musk said he wants to livestream a visit: “This is the American people’s gold. They deserve to see it.” Senator Rand Paul replied, “I’ve tried for ten years and never got in. Go for it.” Even the US government’s own gold reserves are being doubted. So how trustworthy do you think the gold behind ETFs and futures really is? As precious metals enter a supercycle and the world gets crazier, demand for physical gold will only rise. Sooner or later, someone is going to pierce the illusion. When the world finally realizes that all these “gold-backed” financial products aren’t truly backed 1:1 by actual gold, trust collapses—and there’s no going back. 21 million coins. On-chain, fully verifiable. Nobody can just print more out of thin air. What you hold is what you own—no leverage, no paper contracts. Maybe it happens in five years, maybe ten. But I believe we’ll see it. That’s when Bitcoin’s real supercycle begins.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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