The market is feeling the escalating liquidity crunch. As @qinbafrank tweeted this morning, even a good earnings report doesn't guarantee a rebound after hours. Good earnings = decline, explosive earnings = rise. The market's increased sensitivity stems from a lack of liquidity, requiring extreme caution. Last night, the government posted, "The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield has been trending upward recently, ... As of February 2, 2026, the yield rose to 1.95%." This highlights rising funding costs and tightening market liquidity. Be aware of the risks⚠️ The 10-year TIPS yield reaching 2% is not simply "an interest rate figure," but rather the result of a simultaneous tightening of an entire liquidity-risk pricing system. 2% is an extremely rare high level. When it reaches 2%, it means the market is demanding "higher real returns before being willing to take any risk." This presents another test for various risky assets, such as the stock market. Valuations will be squeezed, and you must have "real performance growth," not just storytelling. I asked him about historical years when AI's 10-year TIPS reached 2%. He answered: 1️⃣ Around 2000 (1999–2001), 10-year real yield: ≈ 2.5%–4%, the dot-com bubble. 2️⃣ 2006–2007 (the eve of the financial crisis), 10-year TIPS: ≈ 2.2%–2.5%. 3️⃣ 2023 (the first time it returned to 2%), 10-year TIPS: ≈ 2.0%–2.1%. There's no need to panic excessively. "TIPS reaching 2%" is not the end of the world, but rather a more stringent screening mechanism. The market is starting to ask: "Can you outperform a 2% real risk-free return?"

Here's a commonly used formula: FL = Fed Assets – TGA – ON RRP Where: Fed Assets = Total assets of the Federal Reserve TGA = Treasury accounts ON RRP = Cash held at the Fed

Indeed, the requirements for return on investment are getting higher and higher.