Bitcoin's decline has reignited concerns about a "four-year cycle," but analysts say a repeat of an 80% drop is unlikely.

According to ME News, on February 4th (UTC+8), K33 analysts stated that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its all-time high, a pattern reminiscent of the downward phases of the past four years, raising concerns about a repeat of the bear market. However, the firm believes that the current downtrend differs structurally from those of 2018 and 2022, making a peak-to-trough drop of approximately 80% less likely. Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33, pointed out that while recent market behavior shares similarities with historical deep corrections, the current market features stronger institutional participation, inflows of funds into compliant products, and a more relaxed interest rate environment, while lacking a systemic deleveraging event like that of 2022. He also mentioned that some "bottoming signals" have begun to emerge, including extreme pressure readings in spot trading volume and the derivatives market, but these are still insufficient to confirm a definitive bottom. Lunde believes that around $74,000 is a key support level. If this level is broken, the price could fall to $69,000 or even the $58,000 area near the 200-week moving average. Overall, K33 considers the current price level a potential entry point for long-term investors. (Source: ME)