Bitcoin has fallen below the $70,000 support level, with a 37% drop risk emerging.

Bitcoin is entering a critical phase after the recent correction brought the price close to $70,000. From a macroeconomic perspective, this move is putting Bitcoin at greater risk of a price drop.

Many technical indicators and on-chain data are currently pointing towards a negative trend. However, large investors remain active buyers, attempting to slow or reverse this decline.

Bitcoin loses a key on-chain support level.

Bitcoin has fallen below its True Market Mean for the first time since September 2023. This indicator represents the Medium Capital of circulating supply in the market. Trading below this threshold suggests weakening investor confidence and reflects a structural shift in market behavior.

The loss of this " Peg" confirms the negative signal that has been forming since the end of November. In the medium term, Bitcoin is now stuck in a wider price corridor. The upward momentum has weakened significantly, while selling pressure continues to accumulate across multiple timeframes.

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On the downside, the Realized Price around $55,800 is the level where long-term Capital typically begins to flow back in. On the upside, the True Market Mean of around $80,200 has now become a resistance zone. This limits the potential for a recovery and increases the likelihood of further corrections.

Bitcoin's macroeconomic outlook suggests a potential 37% decline.

This structural weakness is entirely consistent with the negative pattern on the price chart. Bitcoin is breaking out of the Head and Vai pattern that has formed over the past several months. If this pattern completes, the price could fall further by approximately 37% to the $51,511 region.

The sharp 20% drop over the past week further reinforced the downward trend. Increased selling pressure confirmed a breakout above the "neckline," making the negative trend even more pronounced. Typically, such sharp declines are followed by further sell-offs as previously long positions are forced to be liquidated.

The next key support level below $70,000 is the $68,072 area. A drop below this level would confirm a negative trend. A clear break could trigger sharp sell-offs, increased price volatility, and push Bitcoin to even lower price levels.

BTC shark jumps in to the rescue.

Despite increasingly clear negative signals, Bitcoin whales are still actively buying to mitigate the risk of a sharp drop. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated over 50,000 BTC in just four days. At the current price, this amount is equivalent to over $3.58 billion.

This move suggests a long-term accumulation strategy, not just short-term trading. Large investors often take advantage of periods of market fear, especially after sharp corrections, to accumulate assets. Bitcoin falling below $75,000 is creating an attractive buying zone for long-term investors.

If large investors continue to accumulate shares, selling pressure could be absorbed, helping to stabilize prices. History shows that this activity often precedes short-term rallies . However, whether the effect lasts depends on overall market sentiment and whether selling pressure from retail investors eases.

The price of BTC is about to fall below $70,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,500 at the time of writing, after losing 20% ​​of its value over the past week. Currently, BTC has not closed any daily candle below the psychological support level of $70,000. This level has been a crucial demand zone during previous corrections, making it very important for short-term stability.

In the short term, downside risk remains high. If the price drops sharply below $68,442, the market could see a faster sell-off. In that case,Bitcoin could fall to the $65,360 region. If it breaks through this level, Bitcoin could fall even further to $62,893.

On the other hand, buying activity from "whales" can also significantly impact price trends. If Bitcoin holds above $70,000, it is highly likely to recover to the $75,000 region. If it regains this level as support, the short-term bearish scenario will no longer be valid, and if the momentum continues strong, Bitcoin could advance to the $80,000 region.