On-chain data analyst Murphy (@Murphychen888) issued a shocking alert: On February 5, BTC's "Entity Adjusted Realized Loss" (EARL) reached a record high of $3.2 billion - a figure that not only broke all previous records but also surpassed all major black swan events of the past decade.
$3.2 billion: crushing all black swan events
Looking back at the major panic events of the past decade, the $3.2 billion EARLE on February 5th dwarfed them all:
- 312 Incident (2020): EARL approximately $1.1 billion
- The 519 Incident (2021): EARL approximately $2.2 billion
- Luna collapse (2022): EARL approximately $2.7 billion
- FTX goes bankrupt (2022): EARL approximately $1.5 billion
- February 5, 2026 : EARL reaches $3.2 billion (a record high)
Murphy bluntly stated, "After seeing this, everything before it is just a small fry."
No black swan event, yet it set a record for the most panicked event.
What shocked the market most was that this record-breaking panic sell-off did not correspond to any major black swan event.
Whether it was the ecosystem collapse caused by Luna's crash, the trust crisis triggered by FTX's bankruptcy, the COVID-19 panic on March 12th, or the regulatory crackdown in China on May 19th, every massive loss in the past had a clear "trigger." But this time, the market seems to have set a new record amidst "self-panic."
"It's been so many years since I've seen BTC drop this much without a black swan event. I think history will remember this day!"
Explanation of data from November 21, 2025
Murphy added that a large-scale EARL event also occurred on November 21, 2025, but the data was subsequently adjusted due to Coinbase's wallet reorganization. This time, however, "it seems like genuine panic."
What does this "black swan without a black swan" event signify? Is it the beginning of a structural market collapse, or a rebound after extreme panic? The answer may soon be revealed.
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