This paper (by a colleague) is being misunderstood - it is not a prediction about whether the METR exponential curve is ending, but an argument that it is plausible to model the exponential as a series of stacked s-curves, which would require further breakthroughs (at the scale of reasoning) to continue. I don't necessarily even think this contradicts what most insiders in AI, from Demis to Andrej, are saying!

I wanted to make a few clarifications, which we believe were clear in our paper but not in my original post (re-analyzing @METR_Evals data).
Our contribution is to posit progress as a multiplicative product of sigmoids around different innovations. Given the METR data, we split x.com/hamsabastani/s…

Hamsa Bastani

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Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

The crypto market experienced a sharp drop this afternoon, with Ethereum falling below the $2,000 mark at 3 PM Taiwan time, according to Hyperliquid [...]
The article, titled "Machi Big Brother Suffers Huge Losses and Didn't Sleep All Night? Ethereum Falls Below 2000 Magnesium, Panic Arrives, Opens Long BlockTempo and Loses 120,000 Magnesium," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Machi Big Brother lost so much money he couldn't sleep all night? Ethereum fell below 2000, causing panic. He long positions in ETH and HYPE, then sold at a loss, losing all 120,000 in magnesium.

Institutional demand for tokenized finance in Asia is accelerating as the finchain avalanche collaboration moves to bring traditional assets on-chain at scale.
Summary
FinChain deepens strategic coope...