Analysis: BTC may rise during the interest rate hike cycle; loose monetary policy may no longer be a catalyst for a bull market.

According to ME News, on February 7th (UTC+8), Jeff Park, Chief Investment Officer of ProCap Financial, stated in an interview with Anthony Pompliano that the market may need to re-examine the traditional logic that "loose monetary policy drives the Bitcoin bull market." More accommodative policies (such as interest rate cuts) may no longer be the key catalyst for Bitcoin entering a bull market. The most important upward catalyst for Bitcoin in the next stage may be entering its so-called "positively correlated Bitcoin" phase, where prices continue to rise even under a Fed rate hike environment. He calls this state Bitcoin's "endgame" or "holy grail," meaning Bitcoin will break free from the narrative of relying on quantitative easing (QE) liquidity. Jeff Park also emphasized that if this scenario occurs, it could mean the breakdown of traditional financial system logic, including risk-free interest rate pricing mechanisms, the dollar's hegemony, and yield curve pricing methods. Furthermore, data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows that traders currently give the highest probability, at 27%, that the Fed will cut interest rates three times in total throughout 2026. (Source: ME)