Written by: Lucas Gui
As BTC continued its plunge to near the $60,000 mark, MSTR 's stock price also plummeted by more than 17% on Thursday, falling by about 80% from its 24-year high .
Amid such a subdued market sentiment, the atmosphere during MSTR's recent conference call was undeniably tense . Key speakers from MSTR's management team included founder Michael Saylor, CEO Phong Le, and Andrew Kang.
(BTC price once approached $60,000)
The questions from sell-side analysts and investors at the meeting were also very pointed, with the focus of the Q&A session on MSTR's valuation multiples, financing sustainability, and cash flow and dividend pressures in a downside scenario .
To this end, we have summarized the core content and logical thread of this conference call to help readers understand the management's core narrative, key data disclosed, and the final Q&A session with analysts.
1. Management-led narrative
First, management clarified MSTR's corporate positioning, transitioning from a software company to a Bitcoin balance sheet plus digital credit issuance platform. Management's core viewpoint is a digital fortress, holding Bitcoin indefinitely, and using digital credit products to transform Bitcoin volatility into distributable revenue and financing capabilities .
In terms of capital structure narrative, management emphasizes that MSTR common stock will complement digital credit instruments such as STRC . Credit instruments are geared towards income-oriented investors, while common stock will bear more volatility and provide more comprehensive asset coverage , thereby continuing to maintain a complete growth flywheel of financing for cryptocurrency purchases and credit expansion.
(The above chart shows STRC's dividend-related data.)
Currently, faced with the sharp market decline, management is trying to shift the focus of discussion from accounting losses to the following three issues:
Bitcoin holdings and unit costs, the durability of company cash and dollar reserves, and the expansion path of digital credit products help investors maintain a stable mindset and confidence.
Finally, regarding the question of whether to sell Bitcoin, MSTR's management no longer seems as firm in their stance as before. For example, Michael Saylor openly admitted in the earnings call that "selling Bitcoin is an option."
2. Key Data Analysis
As of February 1, MSTR's total Bitcoin holdings were 713,502, with a total cost of $54.26 billion and an average cost of approximately $76,052.
(The above chart shows MSTR's BTC reserves and mNAV)
2025 Bitcoin-related metrics: BTC Yield 22.8%, BTC Gain 101,873, BTC USD gain 8.9 billion.
The Q4 operating and accounting results can only be described as "dismal." Revenue was $123 million, with subscription service revenue reaching $51.8 million, a significant year-over-year increase. However, Q4 still resulted in an overall operating loss of $17.4 billion and a net loss of $12.4 billion, translating to a diluted loss per share of $42.93. Clearly, the primary cause of the loss was the unrealized digital asset losses measured at fair value.
(The above chart shows the earnings of MSTR)
Given the cash flow pressure caused by the depreciation of BTC and the decline in financing capabilities, MSTR's cash flow data is also a closely watched indicator by the market. Currently, MSTR's ending cash and cash equivalents are approximately $2.3 billion, and management emphasized in the conference call that its dollar reserves are approximately $2.25 billion, which can still cover approximately 30 months of dividend obligations .
(The above chart shows MSTR's cash flow related data)
Finally, regarding MSTR's financing and expansion, the executives emphasized in the conference call that they aim to raise $25.3 billion by 2025, and will continue to use digital credit as a key channel to leverage capital.
The real point of divergence in the three questions and answers
1. Will we be forced to sell our cryptocurrency?
The market's core concern is whether the decline in the valuation multiple mNAV after the stock price falls, and whether it will trigger a chain reaction of selling coins or financing failure if it approaches or falls below 1, thus creating a death spiral .
Management's response leans towards a buy-low-sell-high trading logic . When capital market sentiment is positive and mNAV is high, they accelerate the issuance of equity or credit instruments to raise funds and expand the pool; when sentiment is low, they slow down, rather than treating selling tokens as a regular solution . However, as mentioned earlier, Michael Saylor's stance of not selling tokens has gradually begun to soften.
2. Leverage and convertible bond maturity pressure
The core disagreement between management and analysts lies not in the numerical figures, but in the extreme tail scenario. Analysts are questioning whether convertible bonds and dividends can withstand a continued decline in Bitcoin prices during extreme market conditions, and whether this will drive up refinancing costs.
In response, management outlined a framework of approximately $6 billion in net debt , which remains manageable compared to MSTR's current BTC reserves . Management also emphasized that the convertible bonds, with maturities spanning from 2027 to 2032, will be gradually converted into equity , with restructuring or refinancing only considered in extreme circumstances.
3. Are digital credit products a moat or a new risk?
The point of contention on this topic centers on whether the high dividends and rapid expansion of products like Stretch will amplify the burden during a downturn in risky assets.
In response, management remains positive, stating that Stretch is the core growth engine for the next phase and providing an effective yield of around 11%. They explained that they will strengthen credit quality by improving collateral and risk management, while also promoting account openings and distribution through brokerages and retail platforms .
At the same time, management adjusted the rules for the Stretch action reference price, changing it from the five-day average price at the end of the month to the average price for the entire month, suggesting that they are actively dealing with trading disturbances caused by ex-rights and dividend payment dates .
4. How to address the narrative of the Bitcoin quantum threat
The key point of contention is not whether the quantum threat exists, but whether the company should provide a specific roadmap in public discussions.
Analysts are hoping to hear more actionable technical or wallet migration paths. Management, however, has avoided the topic, refusing to provide a specific timeline or single approach, emphasizing instead that the quantum threat should be addressed through industry consensus and a security committee-style collaboration, and positioning quantum concerns as just another round of cyclical panic .
