Yili Hua has fully liquidated his positions. As one of the biggest ETH bulls of this cycle, he exits the stage with a staggering loss of around $734 million. Honestly, I thought he was just de-risking by unwinding leverage, but he ended up clearing even his spot holdings. I still remember on December 30, 2025, at the request of friends, I systematically analyzed “when ETH is worth bottom-fishing” from four angles: sentiment, structure, cost, and overall metrics. In short, only when at least two of these four conditions are met—LTH-NUPL < 0, PSIP < 50%, price below whale cost, overall market score < 1—should you consider starting a position. If three or more are met, then it’s time to scale up moderately. Back then, none of the four criteria were satisfied, so I didn’t think ETH at $2,950 was a buy. But Yili’s fund, Trend Research, was aggressively accumulating, taking a trading stance completely opposite to mine. Who would’ve thought an institution could have such a high-risk appetite? Fast forward to now—let’s look at the four charts: (Chart 1) 1. LTH-NUPL = 0.1; not met, but just a step away from dropping below zero. (Chart 2) 2. PSIP = 39.9%; this one’s met, and the current percent of profitable supply is even lower than the lowest points in April 2025 and June 2022. (Chart 3) 3. Price is below the average cost of the three major whale cohorts ($2,051, $2,198, $2,392); met. (Chart 4) 4. Market composite score = 1; not less than 1, but already in the bottoming range. So if I were to rate ETH right now, I’d say it’s time to “accumulate spot positions in batches,” not “sell everything”—once again, my view is completely opposite to Yili’s strategy. Whether I’m right or not, only time will tell. Yili did nail the bottom for ETH in April 2025, and the data shows his timing back then matched all four criteria above. But this time, with almost identical composite scores, he chose to exit. Maybe the massive losses rattled him, or maybe it was just financial pressure. Either way, I can’t help but feel regret for how things turned out… ---------------------------------------------- For educational purposes only, not financial advice!