XRP has returned to its 200-week moving average near $1.41 according to TradingView, a level that now acts as the cycle’s structural pivot. After an aggressive drop from the $3.3-$3.6 zone with no weekly base built above, the speed of the retrace was inevitable.
Now, XRP is testing - not reclaiming - this long-term line, with candle bodies closing flat along it. This isn’t bounce behavior, but it’s also not collapse.
As long as price holds and reclaims this level on a weekly close, the broader supercycle narrative remains valid. Below it, unfinished business from the prior accumulation phase could pull the XRP price back to $1 or lower.
XRP is back to the point that'll determine if the cryptocurrency is now in a recovery mode or a longer correction cycle, and the problem for buyers is that the current behavior isn't a victory bounce. It's acceptance testing.
Why did XRP lose 30% in one weekly candle?
The $1.6-$2 zone tells the story. It helped support the distribution, but then it failed to produce a higher low, flipped to resistance, and the price of XRP didn't spend time reclaiming it. Until the week closes above the 200-week average, any upside is just corrective, with $2.4 and then $3 acting like barriers, not the open road.
Because of that, the drop felt fast and deep. The last impulse was vertical, and XRP ended up with very little developed weekly base above the 200-week average. When the distribution range of $3.3-$3.6 broke down, there wasn't much established price structure for XRP to catch the price on the way back.
If the 200-week average breaks, the next defined weekly demand is about $1 from both a technical and fundamental point of view.
