Bitunix Analyst: Declining Data Credibility Amplifies Macroeconomic Noise; BTC Rebound Validates Risk Assumptions

According to ME News, on February 9th (UTC+8), with the release of key macroeconomic data delayed and the annual baseline revision imminent, market concerns about the "predictability of the data" intensified rapidly. The January non-farm payroll report was postponed to Wednesday, and the annual revision for 2025 will also be updated. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics had previously indicated that job growth from April 2024 to March 2025 was overestimated by approximately 911,000; internal assessments by Bank of America and the Federal Reserve indicate that the potential downward revision of monthly job growth in the second half of 2025 is approximately 20,000 to 60,000, meaning that total job growth for the year may be only about 584,000, the weakest level since the pandemic. Cross-market performance reflects a split in investor sentiment. Last week, U.S. stocks rebounded after a continuous correction, with the Dow Jones briefly surpassing 50,000 points. During the same period, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and safe-haven buying returned, reflecting that market confidence in risk assets has not truly recovered. Increased volatility in precious metals and a pullback in oil prices triggered by geopolitical news further amplified macroeconomic uncertainty. The crypto market reacted particularly directly. BTC briefly dipped to $59,800 on February 6th, then quickly rebounded to the $71,000 range, indicating structural support at lower levels. However, from a risk pricing perspective, this appears more like a technical correction after deleveraging than a new round of risk appetite recovery. Currently, it's crucial to carefully observe whether the $71,363 resistance level can be effectively recovered. This area corresponds to a key structural level in the previous downtrend and will be an important reference for judging whether funds are willing to take on risk again. Given the backdrop of "high uncertainty and low credibility" created by both non-farm payrolls and CPI data, the short-term market pricing logic has shifted from a single data point (good or bad) to a comprehensive assessment of policy space, data revision risks, and liquidity tolerance. BTC's price movement will primarily reflect changes in this macroeconomic risk-taking willingness, rather than an independent market rally signal. (Source: ME)