After a corrective rebound, the market continues to trade sideways; a summary of market bottom predictions.
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According to ME News, on February 10th (UTC+8), after a sustained decline in the crypto market since January 15th, Bitcoin quickly dropped from $97,000 to above $60,000. The market subsequently saw a corrective rebound, with Bitcoin rising to around $70,000 and then consolidating for several days. Regarding the current unpredictable market trend, market consensus has largely shifted to a crypto bear market. BlockBeats summarizes the main points regarding specific bottom predictions as follows: Analyst @alicharts, combining historical Bitcoin data and technical indicators, predicts that Bitcoin is approaching its 200-week moving average (currently at $58,000), a level that has repeatedly acted as a bear market bottom and accumulation zone over the past 12 years. Furthermore, historical Bitcoin bottoms typically occur near the -1.0 MVRV pricing range, currently at $52,040. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish stated that a Bitcoin long-term holder cost base heatmap shows a dense support level above $60,000, where long-term holders are highly concentrated. Further up, the $80,000 level sees dense supply, forming a key resistance level. This range defines the current competitive landscape of the supply chain. Peter Brandt, the renowned trader and chart analyst who successfully predicted the 2018 Bitcoin crash, wrote on the 6th that if Bitcoin, like in previous bear markets, penetrates deep into the "banana peel" support, the bottom might only be slightly below $42,000. Brandt believes the lower edge of the banana peel is Bitcoin's strongest and most crucial long-term support area, and the bottoms of several major bear markets in history (2011, 2015, 2018, 2022) have generally approached or slightly broken this line. (It's worth noting that what's special about this round of Bitcoin is that it has never successfully touched the upper edge of the banana peel line during its upward movement.) Chinese on-chain analyst Murphy, combining the on-chain indicator CVDD (Cumulative Value Age Burning Index), pointed out that the current CVDD is $44,904 and continues to rise at a dynamic rate of $540 every 30 days. In other words, there's a very high probability that the bottom of this bear market will not fall below $45,000, but will only approach it. Coin Bureau CEO Nic predicted the duration of the crypto bear market: Bitcoin has closed below its 100-week moving average for the third consecutive week. Currently, the price has been below its long-term trend line for 13 consecutive days. Historically, after BTC breaks below its long-term trend line, it stays below that level for an average of 267 days. The shortest period was 34 days during the COVID-19 pandemic. (Source: ME)
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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