Exchange fear index hits all-time low... Rebuttals continue to mount, claiming Bitcoin's bottom is $60,000.
With extreme fear dominating the market, some are speculating that Bitcoin (BTC) may be at its current price bottom. Analysts also suggest that technical indicators and liquidation data support this view.
Bitcoin briefly recovered above $71,000 (approximately 136.61 million won) earlier this week, but has been showing mixed sentiment. However, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a leading indicator of investor sentiment, fell to 7, indicating "extreme fear," its lowest level ever. Some even claim it fell to 5 last weekend.
Similar to historical lows based on psychological indicators and RSI
Michael van de Poppe, founder of cryptocurrency investment firm MN Capital, noted that the current market is experiencing similar levels of fear as the 2018 bear market and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. He analyzed that Bitcoin's daily RSI (relative strength index) has fallen to 15, which is a signal that the price is likely to recover from oversold conditions.
According to market analysis platform CoinGlass, if the Bitcoin price rises by approximately $10,000 from its current level, short positions worth $5.45 billion (approximately 7.9556 trillion won) could be liquidated, fueling a rebound. Conversely, if the price falls to around $60,000 (approximately 87.52 million won), the liquidation would amount to only $2.4 billion (approximately 3.5 trillion won). Consequently, some analysts argue that upward price pressure is even greater.
Technical bearish indicators remain a burden
Meanwhile, the medium- to long-term technical trend remains uncertain. CryptoQuant explained that Bitcoin is trading below both the 50-day moving average (approximately $87,000, or KRW 126.94 million) and the 200-day moving average (approximately $102,000, or KRW 149.05 million), suggesting that this could be a "price readjustment" phase of the previous uptrend.
The "Price Z-Score" indicator also shows a reading of -1.6, significantly lower than the average price. This indicates strong selling pressure and a greater likelihood of a bottoming out rather than a rebound.
Another analyst, Darkpost, noted that there was a clear sell-side dominance in futures trading volume on Binance, with monthly net trading volume plummeting to -$272 million (approximately KRW 396.8 billion) as of Sunday. This suggests that futures are overwhelming spot trading, suggesting that an upward turnaround may be difficult without strong spot buying.
According to past trends, $57,000 is also possible.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin expert Zelle stated that the true bottom of the historical bear cycle was formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, this level is around $57,000 (approximately 83.14 million won), indicating further downside potential. He added that in a worst-case scenario, the price could even reach $42,000 (approximately 61.24 million won).
As such, market sentiment is divided between massive fear and the perception of a bottom. While downward pressure persists, there is also the potential for a rebound driven by short selling liquidation and technical oversold signals. Therefore, Bitcoin's future direction is likely to depend on short-term supply and demand catalysts.
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This article was summarized using a TokenPost.ai-based language model. Key points in the text may be omitted or inaccurate.
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