[분석 "BTC 투매 단계 아직...추가 하락 가능성"]

BTC가 아직 카피츌레이션(항복 매도) 단계에 진입하지 않았으며, 향후 추가 하락 가능성이 있다는 진단이 나왔다. 앰버데이터 파생상품 디렉터 그렉 마가디니(Greg Magadini)는 "BTC는 베이시스(선물-현물 가격 차이)가 큰폭으로 증가할 때 바닥에 도달하곤 했다. 지난 2022년 하락장 당시 90일 선물은 현물보다 9% 할인된 가격에 거래됐다. 반면 현재는 베이시스에 뚜렷한 변화가 나타나지 않고 있다. 현재 90일 베이시스는 무위험 국채 수익률과 비슷한 수준인 4%를 유지 중이다. 향후 선물 트레이더들이 물량을 던질 경우 BTC는 추가 하락할 수 있다"고 분석했다.

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[Analysis: "BTC Still in a Sell-Off Phase... Further Downside Potential"]

BTC has not yet entered a copying phase (capital selling) and is expected to decline further. Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amber Data, stated, "BTC has often bottomed when the basis (the difference between futures and spot prices) increases significantly. During the 2022 bear market, 90-day futures traded at a 9% discount to spot. However, there has been no significant change in the basis currently. The 90-day basis currently stands at 4%, similar to the risk-free Treasury yield. If futures traders dump their holdings in the future, BTC could decline further."

Bitcoin's price briefly touched $60,000 last week. Under a diminishing returns model, this is no mere noise. The market is touching the weakest link in the entire four-year cycle and logarithmic growth framework.

With the gains at the top of the Bitcoin cycle already significantly compressed, a further historically deep correction would completely negate the allure of its classic cycles.

This is not a prediction; it's a mathematical law.

Cycle Top Gains are Compressing

Historical Bitcoin Cycle Tops:

· 2013: ~$1,242

· 2017: ~$19,700

· 2021: ~...

$55,000 will be the lifeline for Bitcoin.

The crypto market experienced a sharp drop this afternoon, with Ethereum falling below the $2,000 mark at 3 PM Taiwan time, according to Hyperliquid [...]
The article, titled "Machi Big Brother Suffers Huge Losses and Didn't Sleep All Night? Ethereum Falls Below 2000 Magnesium, Panic Arrives, Opens Long BlockTempo and Loses 120,000 Magnesium," was originally published on BlockTempo, the most influential blockchain ABMedia media.

Machi Big Brother lost so much money he couldn't sleep all night? Ethereum fell below 2000, causing panic. He long positions in ETH and HYPE, then sold at a loss, losing all 120,000 in magnesium.

Institutional demand for tokenized finance in Asia is accelerating as the finchain avalanche collaboration moves to bring traditional assets on-chain at scale.
Summary
FinChain deepens strategic coope...