JAN NFP PREVIEW: INFINITYHEDGE
CONSENSUS: +65K
HIGH: +135K
LOW: -10K
BBG: 0k (?)
GS: 45K
JPM: 70k
S&P 500 reaction:
>110k: -0.5 to -1%
60k to 100k: +0.25% to 1%
30K to 60k: ±0.25%
<30k: -0.5% to -1.25%
JPM: We think the print falls in the Goldilocks zone, but one that is too hot will trigger a repricing of the yield curve higher and the elevated bond vol likely produces a down day for stocks, and one that is too cool will have the market on edge that the Fed is late to resuming its easing cycle and with Powell unlikely to cut before his term as Fed Chair ends, means that first cut would be in June.
GS: We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4% in January, but we see the risks as skewed to a decline: the bar for rounding down to 4.3% is not high from an unrounded 4.38% in December and the January unemployment rate appears to suffer from modestly negative residual seasonality (the unrounded unemployment rate has declined in each of the last three Januarys).
BBG & GS both estimate that the updated birth-death model could contribute to fewer jobs
*BLS will also release it's final benchmark revisions, and BBG expect that almost 1M jobs erased between 2024 and 2025: infinityhedge
Views from Trump Adminstration ahead of NFP release:
*TRUMP: OUR EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE REALLY GOOD
*HASSETT: LOWER JOBS NUMBERS SHOULDN'T TRIGGER PANIC
*NAVARRO: WE HAVE TO REVISE OUR EXPECTATIONS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WHAT A MONTHLY JOB NUMBER SHOULD LOOK LIKE
CONSENSUS: +65K
HIGH: +135K
LOW: -10K
BBG: 0k (?)
GS: 45K
JPM: 70k
S&P 500 reaction:
>110k: -0.5 to -1%
60k to 100k: +0.25% to 1%
30K to 60k: ±0.25%
<30k: -0.5% to -1.25%
JPM: We think the print falls in the Goldilocks zone, but one that is too hot will trigger a repricing of the yield curve higher and the elevated bond vol likely produces a down day for stocks, and one that is too cool will have the market on edge that the Fed is late to resuming its easing cycle and with Powell unlikely to cut before his term as Fed Chair ends, means that first cut would be in June.
GS: We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.4% in January, but we see the risks as skewed to a decline: the bar for rounding down to 4.3% is not high from an unrounded 4.38% in December and the January unemployment rate appears to suffer from modestly negative residual seasonality (the unrounded unemployment rate has declined in each of the last three Januarys).
BBG & GS both estimate that the updated birth-death model could contribute to fewer jobs
*BLS will also release it's final benchmark revisions, and BBG expect that almost 1M jobs erased between 2024 and 2025: infinityhedge
Views from Trump Adminstration ahead of NFP release:
*TRUMP: OUR EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS ARE REALLY GOOD
*HASSETT: LOWER JOBS NUMBERS SHOULDN'T TRIGGER PANIC
*NAVARRO: WE HAVE TO REVISE OUR EXPECTATIONS DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FOR WHAT A MONTHLY JOB NUMBER SHOULD LOOK LIKE
