Chainfeeds Summary:
Overall, the market is in a dynamic equilibrium under high pressure: liquidity is tight, participation is highly selective, and the overall position structure is clearly defensive.
Article source:
https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-06-2026/
Article Author:
glassnode
Opinion:
Glassnode: The current main trading range in the third phase is between the upper limit of the real market average at $79,200 and the lower limit of the realized price at $55,000, a structure highly similar to that of the first half of 2022. Similar to the second quarter of 2022, prices are expected to continue oscillating between the real market average and the realized price. The market needs more time and further compression to generate new incremental buying and gradually absorb selling pressure. In the short term, a trend reversal may require extraordinary catalysts: either the price will rise back above $79,200, confirming structural strength, or a systemic shock similar to LUNA or FTX will occur, causing the price to fall below $55,000. Without such extreme events, the most likely path in the medium term remains a prolonged period of range-bound trading and consolidation. Currently, selling pressure is mainly absorbed in the $60,000–$72,000 range, which is precisely the main area of high trading volume formed by repeated fluctuations in the first half of 2024. Multiple successful defenses indicate that some buyers are gradually building positions within this range. Ideally, if this range continues to receive effective support, it could repeat the strong accumulation phase seen in the past, laying a solid foundation for the next upward trend. However, the stability of this structure ultimately depends on the strength and sustainability of the buying pressure. If the accumulation momentum weakens in the $60k–$72k range, the market may resume a deeper downward exploration. To assess the strength of support in the $60k–$72k range, we introduce UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data. This indicator depicts the distribution of tokens across different cost ranges based on the price at the time of Bitcoin's last transfer. Current data shows that the price is supported by a dense cost band formed in the first half of 2024, concentrated in the $60k–$72k range, indicating that holders in this area are still actively defending. However, the upper price structure remains heavy. There are large amounts of trapped capital in the $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k ranges. These holdings could pose significant potential selling pressure during price rebounds, especially in environments with prolonged unrealized losses or increased volatility, making further emotional selling more likely. Identifying tactical turning points is crucial in the current oscillating structure. In bear markets, price rebounds are often suppressed by short-term profit-taking, historically exhibiting a pattern of "rebound – distribution – further decline." The Short-Term Supply in Profit (STH) ratio provides an important reference. When this indicator enters its statistical "mean heating zone" (historical mean to +0.5 standard deviations), bear market rebounds often peak. Currently, this indicator is only 4.9%, indicating that the vast majority of short-term buyers are still unrealized losses, and the market structure remains fragile. The lack of significant profit potential makes it difficult for rebound momentum to be sustained unless substantial new demand enters the market. Digital Asset Vault (DAT) fund flows have clearly turned negative, with net outflows simultaneously occurring from spot ETFs, corporate vaults, and government holdings, and this happened just as Bitcoin hit a new low. ETF outflows dominated the market, while corporate and sovereign capital retreated simultaneously, indicating that the selling pressure was not localized but rather a widespread systemic risk-averse activity. This synchronized outflow suggests that the spot market is currently in a supply-driven phase, with new demand unable to effectively offset the selling pressure. As long as the DAT fund flow fails to stabilize, prices will remain highly sensitive to selling pressure, and market volatility will primarily depend on whether the speed of new buying is sufficient to absorb this round of institutional selling. When Bitcoin rapidly fell to the early $70,000 range, spot trading volume surged significantly, with the 7-day average rising markedly, reflecting traders' passive response to rapid fluctuations. However, this surge in volume did not last, and trading activity quickly declined, indicating that the market did not develop a sustained willingness to buy the dips, but rather exhibited more short-term portfolio adjustments and passive liquidation. This means that the current accumulation depth is still significantly lower than the scale of selling pressure. The market has not yet shown the sustained buying support that usually accompanies trend stabilization. Until then, prices will remain highly sensitive to sudden fluctuations, and a stable structure is unlikely to be confirmed in the short term.
Content source 
