Robinhood, an online brokerage firm, released its Q4 2025 financial report on February 10, presenting a report card with both highlights and concerns.
Fourth-quarter revenue reached $1.28 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase, setting a new quarterly record; full-year revenue reached $4.5 billion, a 52% year-over-year increase. Earnings per share (EPS) were $0.66, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $0.62.
However, total revenue was still about 5% lower than analysts’ expectations of $1.34 billion, mainly due to a sharp decline in cryptocurrency trading revenue.
Q4 crypto revenue was only $221 million, a 38% year-on-year decrease and far below Wall Street's estimate of $248 million.
Robinhood's stock price plummeted on February 11, closing at $77.97, a single-day drop of 8.91%.
Robinhood's performance across its business lines: Options and Equity saw significant growth, while Crypto lagged behind.
A breakdown of Q4 business lines reveals that the weakness in cryptocurrency stands out even more:
| Business lines | Q4 Revenue | Annual growth rate |
|---|---|---|
| Options Trading | $314 million | +41% |
| Cryptocurrency trading | $221 million | -38% |
| Other transactions (including prediction markets) | $147 million | +300% |
| Stock trading | US$0.94 billion | +54% |
| Net interest income | $411 million | +39% |
It is worth noting that prediction markets (Event Contracts) within the "Other Transactions" category have become the most prominent growth engine.
In Q4 alone, 8.5 billion contracts were processed, bringing the total for the year to over 12 billion. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev called the prediction market "the fastest-growing business in the company's history," with an annualized run rate exceeding $300 million.
Bernstein reiterates its $160 price target
In the face of market panic selling, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani chose to speak out against the trend.
We see no reason to turn bearish near the bottom. Just weather the crypto market volatility; it's temporary.
Chhugani believes that the decline in crypto revenue in Q4 mainly reflects short-term market panic following Bitcoin's pullback from its all-time high. He expects this shock to be concentrated in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, with a significant recovery anticipated from the second quarter onwards.
Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating on Robinhood and maintained its price target of $160, implying an upside of approximately 105% from the closing price of $77.97 on February 11. Most of the 22 analysts tracking the stock still maintain a Strong Buy rating.
Robinhood Chain testnet launches, laying the groundwork for tokenization.
While its crypto revenue is under short-term pressure, Robinhood is accelerating its efforts to develop tokenized assets .
On the same day as the earnings release, Robinhood announced the official launch of its public testnet for the Arbitrum-based Layer 2 blockchain, "Robinhood Chain," and invested $1 million to launch a developer ecosystem program. Positioned as a "financial-grade" Ethereum L2 blockchain, the chain supports 24/7 trading and self-custody of tokenized stocks and ETFs.
The testnet has already launched "stock tokens" from well-known companies such as Tesla, Amazon, and Palantir. Robinhood has also established a joint venture, Rothera, with Susquehanna International Group, with plans to build an independent CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse to provide compliant infrastructure for prediction markets and tokenized assets.
