MSTR: Neither Death Spiral Nor Safe Haven The bull case as it existed for four years is over. not bearish commentary, just what happens when IBIT holds 767k BTC without the governance risk, dilution, or $888M/yr in obligations. Chanos understood this before most, made 100%, and walked away. But the death spiral crowd hasn't looked at the debt stack either: - Converts don't mature until 2028, strike prices range $183 to $672, all above current levels - $2.25B cash reserve covers 2.5+ years of obligations - $3.9B raised in january while bitcoin was under pressure - Capital markets are open, collapse narrative doesn't hold The real vulnerability sits between the two extremes: - MSCI deferred exclusion but quietly excluded future share issuance from index weight calculations - That removes the passive bid that made the dilution flywheel work - $888M in annual obligations against $477M in software revenue - Gap needs to be funded by continued issuance or bitcoin appreciation, neither guaranteed At 0.91x mNAV the question has shifted from whether strategy survives to whether saylor can rebuild the premium engine after every tailwind that created it has been removed. fundamentally different bet than what most holders signed up for. Full breakdown in our latest issue of @machinesmoneyA1 ↓ twitter.com/zerokn0wledge_/sta...