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I actually wrote quite a bit a couple of days ago, but I deleted it all because I really didn't want to continue being bearish on the industry during this toughest time for everyone.
To put it simply, I believe this bear market will last longer than most people think, and the decline will generally be deeper than the last one.
In this altcoin bull market, only BNB, XRP, ZEC, and OKB (burning coins) have seen their peaks surpass their 21-year highs. Sol and ETH are roughly on par.
In five years, the industry has gone through the entire process from concept to implementation to innovation exhaustion. In the end, the only new growth has come from the largest casinos that have absorbed all the existing supply and two highly controlled hard-pump coins (and these institutions are unlikely to participate).
So how do you convince new institutional funds to invest in crypto? What's the reason? Try again for another five years?
As for BTC, the last peak was more than three times higher than the one before that. All the conceivable positive factors have materialized in this round: the US BTC ETF, Wall Street's embrace of crypto, and the most crypto-pro-oriented president. Yet, in five years, the peak has less than doubled compared to the previous peak.
So what bigger positive factor am I betting on in the next round? Can't I easily find that kind of odds in the US stock market?
The idea that AI combined with crypto can stimulate crypto is, frankly, just wishful thinking within the industry.
Domestic AI is already buying milk tea, and Alipay can open accounts for people, so why can't it open accounts for AI? The AI era is just that the carrier for end users has changed from humans to AI. AI using crypto remains a niche/anti-regulatory demand. If you're an institution and so optimistic about AI driving crypto, why not just invest in AI directly?
I consider myself quite proficient in crypto, even a believer in the industry, but I honestly can't see a way forward.
As long as the world continues to become more centralized, and as long as Bitcoin remains a "dollar-denominated asset," it will be difficult for crypto to see significant further growth.

憨厚的麦总
@Michael_Liu93
我可能这轮不会再抄btc了,看情况吧
I'm optimistic about Mak's foray into the entertainment industry; I predict he'll become a dominant figure, known as "Karaoke King."
Wheat butt
Your judgment is based on the premise that the world continues to operate within its original order, such as the existence of the concept of nations. However, I believe that the acceleration of AI will lead the world into a state of disorder.

潜水观察员
@connectfarm1
感觉全世界都在因为ai唱衰crypto
事实上ai 对于人类文明的加速会真正的放大crypto 的作用
因为Crypto 是最好的Aiapp 和ai agent 的价值厘定器
Crypto将会干掉传统的金融圈秩序
Ai 对于世界的加速会让传统的金融工具显得无比的笨重
而只有无需许可的crypto 才是适配ai 世界最好的底层金融工具
This package isn't from the crypto; it's from Web3.
Such unfamiliar and cold words
Besides hedging against risk, gold is now already priced in the collapse of the US dollar.
Agreed. Hedging would prevent the collapse of the US dollar.
Mr. Mai's writing is really good 👍👍 He wrote down my thoughts clearly and understandably.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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